Round 10 Preview: Teams are, have been and always will be bad

Brendon Bolton was at the forefront of a media barrage once again this week.

How refreshing and new did it feel to have another week where the football world poured it on Carlton?

Coming off another disastrous effort against the Giants, the Blues remain rooted to the bottom of the ladder with just the solitary victory and exceeded the ineptitude shown two weeks prior against North Melbourne in their 93-point humiliation at Giants Stadium.

As has now become customary in 2019, the media buried coach Brendon Bolton, tore shreds off the playing group and questioned again when or if club administration would act and force changes as their season spirals into a dumpster fire once again.

One quote that caught my attention and was trotted out by Caroline Wilson on both Footy Classified and the Age Real Footy podcast was the advantage teams playing were gaining through percentage boosts and that it would artificially skew the ladder.

Now ignoring the fact that Carlton have been largely competitive in all their games this year – aside from big losses to the Kangaroos and GWS, their biggest loss has been 33-points in Round 1 to Richmond. There is a reality of football, and any sport for that matter, which Caro and indeed the entire football world forgets, some teams aren’t good.

The reality is someone must be at the foot of the ladder, there will never be 18 competitive teams, it’s not possible. Yet we go through this pathetic dance every time Carlton losses a game. It’s mainly a symptom of the oversaturation of coverage, but I think it’s also partly this sudden impatience that rebuilding teams should take no longer than one, maybe two seasons to get back to relevance.

This isn’t surprising that the Blues are struggling again. They’re coming off a two-win season which netted them last year’s wooden spoon and despite some senior additions in the off-season are still young, inexperienced and face plenty of development before they can contend again.

No one, aside from the most optimistic Carlton supporter, could have had the Blues any higher than the bottom six in their preseason ladder predictions (aside from the club themselves ironically, who of course swapped first round picks in the 2019 draft with Adelaide).

Carlton embarked on an all-out rebuild, right as free agency changed the ways teams should regenerate and are still very much near the bottom of the mountain. They will continue to struggle, they will continue to have horrible games and at times, it will continue to seem like all hope is gone, it’s part of rebuilding.

Now I agree that they should be further advanced than where they are, and Sunday was truly horrific. The stagnation in development of the likes of Charlie Curnow, Paddy Dow and Sam Petrevski-Seton is also a concern. But the reality is their list is young, they’re not very good and there will continue to be pain. There’s no need for a forensic microscope every time Carlton lose a game.

As I have unwittingly added to this pile on of Carlton, let’s go the top of the ladder and for the first time this season, the top eight includes the best eight teams. While it is certainly no lock, there is a good chance we’re looking at our final top eight after Round 9.

Stats suggest we should be close as on average 6.5 of the top eight is locked in at this point of the season, so any more than one or two changes would be unexpected.

Right now, at most, there are five premiership contenders and even that can be whittled down. Let’s break down our top eight and where they sit:

Leading the pack – Geelong and Collingwood

These two teams have emerged as we approach the halfway mark and deserve their standing as 1st and 2nd respectively. The Cats have certainly shown more than the Pies, including winning their head-to-head clash in Round 1, however Collingwood haven’t reached anything near their peak and have several gears they can move in to as we approach finals.

Next in line – GWS Giants

Prior to the Hawthorn loss, the Giants deserved to be with the top two, however consistent issues have emerged. While their struggles at the MCG are real and have received far more airtime, their bigger issue in continually failing to mentally show up to games, particularly when they’re seen as strong favourites. Maybe their Round 2 loss against the Eagles saw them walk into a buzzsaw as the reigning premiers enjoyed their first game at home since their September triumph, however their hiccups against Fremantle and the Hawks keep them a step behind.

Stalking but still unproven – Richmond and West Coast

The two most recent premiers are currently unproven for different reasons. The term doesn’t quite fit Richmond, who have shown their depth can hold up despite serious injuries to key players. However, these injuries do keep them behind that top three, especially when you consider their heavy losses they’ve already suffered against Collingwood and GWS. West Coast is a pure form concern. They haven’t really touched the heights of 2018, save for their dismantling of the Giants. They still have to be respected for their feats last season, but they do need to start showing they can replicate that form.

The wildcard – Brisbane

Give respect to the Lions, they’ve come on faster than I expected and although benefiting from a few middle of the road teams falling off from last year, their 6-3 record is legit and it would be surprising if they missed finals. The knock on them is their losses have been bad and they don’t have any major scalps. They did easily account for West Coast, however that was in Round 1 and the Eagles were undermanned. The positive; they’ve largely taken care of business against teams around them on the ladder.

Rounding out the top eight – Adelaide, Port Adelaide

Both South Australians teams are just about where they should be. I haven’t been sold on Adelaide. Their win streak was against a bunch of cupcakes and despite a late charge, fell a point short against the Lions, suggesting they’re a level back from Brisbane and even further behind the top five. Port Adelaide are going to Port Adelaide and once again they smack the teams below them and fall short against anyone above them. Aside from their demolition of the Eagles, their wins have come against Carlton, Melbourne, North Melbourne and Gold Coast. Port are the team most likely to slip out of the finals come September.

Onwards to Round 10, peeps:

Sydney vs Collingwood (-17.5)

Two weeks ago, Sydney’s future looked as bleak as anyone’s, but low and behold they’ve unearthed some young talent. Nick Blakey has come as advertised, Oliver Florent is improving, George Hewett has turned into a very solid tagger and even Ryan Clark got revenge against his old team. However, we can pump the breaks on a mid-season revival until they’ve beaten more than the Bombers and Kangaroos. Collingwood will provide a much sterner test on a ground (or more a city) where they’ve traditionally thrived on.

Hawthorn (3.5) vs Port Adelaide

The term ‘flat-track bullies’ is thrown around a fair bit these days, but somehow, every year it fits perfectly in describing the Power. They beat up on the dregs and never get close to any serious contender. Their current record against fellow top eight teams is 1-4 and as mentioned, their only decent win came against West Coast. Admittedly they have battled through a pretty serious injury toll and need to take care of business against a Hawks side which are around three weeks away from correctly throwing in the towel on their season.

Western Bulldogs (-8.5) vs North Melbourne

I continue to stand by my feeling that with a better coach this Bulldogs team could thrive. Despite falling away late against the Cats, the Dogs played some brilliant football. Their ball movement was crisp, their foot skills were impressive, and their outside run was damaging. They have the makings of a solid list despite deficiencies in the key position department across the ground. Their backline was manhandled by Geelong in giving up 21-goals. Thankfully they won’t face the same offensive force on Saturday.

Adelaide vs West Coast (+8.5)

I’m not ready to give up on the Eagles and I’m equally not ready to believe in the Crows. West Coast are indeed showing some worrying signs and if Melbourne weren’t such a disaster right now, they would have lost comfortably last Friday night. The Eagles feel like a team who will never put it all together this year, but I’ll stick with them for now.

Richmond (-13.5) vs Essendon

Devon Smith and Joe Daniher both done for the year in the one week. Despite being within striking distance of the top eight, this Essendon season feels cooked and they can’t be trusted to make any indents against the top teams. Dreamtime at the ‘G has been fairly one-sided of late and despite Richmond’s injury list continuing to grow, the Tigers feel like they’re hitting another gear, particularly if Dustin Martin can repeat last week’s effort.

Gold Coast (+32.5) vs Geelong

Watching the Suns fall away in the last quarter against the Power last week was annoying, they deserved to be closer and definitely deserved to cover the line. For a team so bereft of talent, Gold Coast are exceptionally coached. They seem to finally be getting genuine output from Jack Bowes and Ben Ainsworth, but you would like to see a little more from Jack Lukosius and Ben King needs some time to get used to the AFL level. The Cats have traditionally used their trip north as an excuse for a holiday and could be minus Patrick Dangerfield and Gary Ablett, who are both due a rest.

Melbourne vs GWS Giants (-9.5)

The dreaded trip to the MCG for the Giants. Melbourne provide them a perfect opportunity to smash that deficiency, while also giving them a chance to get their heads straight and take care of a weaker opponent. Take nothing from their cakewalk last week, that smashing was always on the cards. A team like Melbourne is one they’ve occasionally struggled against, unless they arrive ready to kill.

St Kilda vs Carlton (+17.5)

Whacked in the media ad nauseum again, expect a much more spirited display from the Blues and inevitably fall short once again. Not sure what to make of the Saints this season, their injuries have clouded any sort of proper measurement which makes the handling of Alan Richardson far more difficult. They’re stuck in limbo.

Fremantle (-5.5) vs Brisbane

Fremantle follow a similar pattern where they’ll dish up a few stinkers and have an odd surprise game maybe one a month or so. That game is due up and I don’t like the idea of a young Brisbane team travelling across the country. Their interstate record has been patchy so far, with big losses against Essendon at the MCG and the Bulldogs in Ballarat. Open up the taps a little Ross and let your team score.

Season Record

36/81 (44%)

Geelong can reap the benefits of holding firm on Kelly

Following the 2008 season, former Sydney forward Ryan O’Keefe knocked back Sydney’s three-year contract offer and sought a trade back to his home state of Victoria.

Premiers Hawthorn quickly emerged as the front runners and O’Keefe looked destined to join the Hawks during trade week.

The issue was no deal could be brokered and with the prospect of being vulnerable to the order of the pre-season draft, O’Keefe eventually re-signed with Sydney, played out the rest of his career for the Swans, winning a Norm Smith medal and a premiership.

Prior to 2018, this stood as the last occasion where a high-profile player expressed a desire to leave his club yet was forced to remain with no trade ever eventuating.

With the advent of free agency allowing more fluid player movement once players came out of contract after extended periods at the one club, it also changed the way contracted players were treated with clubs seemingly always willing to accept trade requests from players and complete deals, sometimes at the last minute.

Tim Kelly seemed destined to force his way back to his home state of Western Australia after he finally publicly announced his desire to be traded to West Coast after a year of rumours that he and his family were unhappy living in Geelong.

Despite public pressure, the on-going perception that ‘deals just get done’ and the threat of losing Kelly for less or no compensation in a year, the Cats didn’t buckle and moved on after failing to receive what they viewed as adequate compensation.

It was a change of reputation from the team down the highway, but it’s reaping major benefits and will continue to do so through the season and into this year’s trade period.

Geelong had three key factors in their favour which made it beneficial to hold onto Kelly, all aside from the fact he immediately become one of the club’s and indeed the league’s best midfielders.

The first was having Kelly under contract. While that hasn’t really meant much of late, with the likes of Josh Schache and Gary Ablett forcing trades while under contract, Geelong still held leverage over Kelly and rightfully used it. He’s also on an extremely low contract. It’s worth mentioning the benefits of having a top five player on your list being paid a second-round draft pick salary.

Second was Kelly’s value was only going to go up. Barring a major injury, the on-baller was going to improve, he was entering the prime of his career, had no wear and tear on his body at the top level and had a year within the AFL system under his belt. The Cats were going to be able to come to trade table with a higher prized recruit than the previous year.

The third and potentially most intriguing factor which the Cats benefited from waiting on, was Fremantle entering the picture. Despite protestations from Kelly (and his West Coast-centric manager) against the idea of heading to the Dockers, there was a chance that if Geelong held firm, Kelly would have to relent and open a two-horse race between the WA clubs. Seemingly, that has happened and now Geelong can seek the best deal from two possible destinations.

With the power players currently have over trade negotiations is it hard for clubs to hold firm, they have no ability to seek maximum compensation as the player can veto any trade to a destination that doesn’t suit him.

Hence why players are dealt so easily, even while under contract. But Geelong were right then to hold firm and the decision looks even better now. Kelly is a genuine Brownlow contender whose value has shot past any players dealt in recent trade periods. He’s probably the best player to request a trade since Chris Judd.

Now West Coast maximised Judd’s value through the ability to sort through a bevy of offers from Victorian clubs. As Geelong only has one, maybe two teams in play, they don’t quite have that option, but they are in a stronger position to deal this off-season than last.

West Coast’s reported final offer was their two second-round picks in 2018 (20, 22) and a future second-round selection in this year’s draft (that will presumably fall somewhere in the mid-20’s). Against Steven Wells’ M.O. and the reputation of the Cats as the ‘good guys of trade week’, the Cats held out for a future first-round pick in this year’s draft and never baulked from their demand.

Now Kelly is undoubtedly worth at least two-first round picks and then some, considering he looks more complete than past players who were dealt for that price including Adam Treloar and Dylan Shiel.

Of course, the entirely alternate scenario which could become a reality and was strengthened by Geelong buying time accredited to them through Kelly’s contract, is they convince him to stay.

While it’s highly likely he seeks a trade as soon as Geelong play their final game later this season, the Cats have had another year to work on making Kelly and his family happy in Geelong. They have taken notable steps off field and their 7-1 start and premiership favouritism surely couldn’t hurt their chances either.

It may not exactly set a precedent in future years, but the Cats have shown the benefits of holding players to their contracts and not faulting the second a contracted player wants out. Clubs still have some leverage and Geelong has used that to their effect and will more-than-likely benefit from it, either through a sweeter deal come October, or Kelly signing an extension with the team.

The only thing that hasn’t changed for the Cats appears to be still losing a great player, which Tim Kelly has already become.

Round 1 Preview: Get over it Richmond, move on

Richmond’s Nathan Broad didn’t have quite the same level of fun as his teammates, this off-season.

It is finally here, Round 1, marking the official end of the off-season, dominated by one team, guess who?

Yes, if you’re a fan of any of the other 17 teams, you’ve no doubt enjoyed the last six-months, a Tigers lovefest across all forms of media. Damien Hardwick recounting on a daily basis how he had to change his methods after the 2016 disaster. Dustin Martin suddenly becoming a marketable face of the league, and for some reason, Bonds underwear. Alex Rance again trying to drum up some publicity with a faux retirement. Jack Riewoldt’s wedding. Brendon Gale being Brendon Gale, etc. etc.

After the Bulldogs broke their premiership drought in 2016, I didn’t think the level of coverage on a single team could be topped, that the media could spend more time focusing on a single team, but alas they have. And I get that there will be a greater focus on the reigning premiers, it makes sense. You’re going to hear about the Tigers more than say, North Melbourne, who no one ever has any interest in, particularly this year. However, at some point, enough is enough, surely.

The entire 2018 season has been built on Richmond, from the marketing by the league, to the marketing by major TV networks, to which players are constantly being promoted. And I pray and hope, it all falls apart and quickly.

Richmond have eight marque games on either Thursday or Friday night, with the ANZAC Day eve game against Melbourne on a Tuesday night thrown in for good measure. Can you imagine if the Tigers put up a Bulldogs-like premiership defence? Wouldn’t it be glorious. A slow start, in-fighting, injuries, turmoil and the return of supporters threatening to microwave memberships and burning down Punt Road, the good old days.

Anyway, what else has been going on outside of Richmond? Well the AFL has botched Tasmania and how to handle sex scandals inside AFL House. Collingwood are still a dumpster fire. Jeff Kennett is back, that’s just what we need. And some Melbourne players didn’t want to go on a pre-season camp, which means according to some meatheads in the media, we should write off their entire season before it even begins.

I do enjoy the likes of Wayne Carey and Cam Mooney calling Melbourne players soft for going to the AFLPA to voice their concerns regarding training habits at the clubs. It’s not like that’s the reason the AFLPA exists and I mean they don’t even go around king hitting opponents off the ball, now that’s toughness.

So, the season begins tonight, which means it’s still prediction season. Some general thoughts for the 2018 season. Sydney’s midfield will return to being a powerhouse. I don’t like the Port Adelaide hype but it’s more deserved than the Essendon hype. Free agent and trade acquisitions seem to guarantee success in the eyes of some, the Bombers have major holes. The Dees will play finals and are the best chance at replicating the Dogs and Tigers of years before. For some reason, I’m bullish on Fremantle, I like what they’re building despite their deficiencies up forward. Gold Coast not having a home ground for half a season is an absolute travesty, although Stuart Dew seems like a competent coach. Geelong will do what they do every year under Chris Scott and fall short in the finals and North will be irrelevant, again.

Some major predictions;

Premiers – Sydney
Runners Up – Adelaide
Wooden Spoon – North Melbourne
Brownlow – Bryce Gibbs

Ladder

  1. Sydney
  2. GWS Giants
  3. Adelaide
  4. Richmond
  5. Melbourne
  6. Geelong
  7. Port Adelaide
  8. Hawthorn
  9. Collingwood
  10. Fremantle
  11. St. Kilda
  12. Essendon
  13. Western Bulldogs
  14. Gold Coast
  15. West Coast
  16. Brisbane
  17. Carlton
  18. North Melbourne

Season Wins Over/Under

Adelaide (15.5) – Over
Brisbane (6.5) – Under
Carlton (6.5) – Under
Collingwood (10.5) – Under
Essendon (12.5) – Under
Fremantle (9.5) – Over
Geelong (14.5) – Under
Gold Coast (5.5) – Over
GWS Giants (14.5) – Over
Hawthorn (10.5) – Over
Melbourne (12.5) – Over
North Melbourne (6.5) – Under
Port Adelaide (13.5) – Under
Richmond (13.5) – Over
St. Kilda (9.5) – Over
Sydney (15.5) – Over
West Coast (10.5) – Under
Western Bulldogs (11.5) – Under

And now, onwards to Round 1;

Richmond (-30.5) vs Carlton

The Tigers coronation in front of 80,000 insufferable Richmond supporters with 10,000 Carlton supporters asking themselves why they bothered to turn up and be surrounded by these people. Despite all the optimism around Brendon Bolton and this improving Carlton list, they only won six-games in 2017 and went 1-9 from Round 14, giving Bolton a 2-18 record between Rounds 14 and 23 across his first two-seasons. They’ve also lost two of their best five players from last year with Gibbs at Adelaide and Sam Docherty being lost for the season with an ACL tear. Hopefully the Blues will stick with Richmond for a half or longer, but a six to seven goal loss is on the cards.

Adelaide (-2.5) vs Essendon

It’s probably no different to any other season, but there seems to be a lot of injuries on the eve of the year. Adelaide haven’t escaped the injury bug with captain Taylor Walker being ruled out of their opener and Brad Crouch looking at almost two months on the sidelines with groin soreness. The Bombers lost Marty Gleeson in the JLT series with a serious ankle injury and small forward Orazio Fantasia will miss several games. These odds are much closer than they should be and the Crows will cruise.

Brisbane (+24.5) vs St. Kilda

The Saints are a strange case, in the words of Damo Barrett, “where are they at?” St. Kilda are stuck in no man’s land, sort of good enough to sneak into the finals, but won’t do any damage. As all clubs seem to love doing, the Saints went and re-signed Alan Richardson despite him not having achieved a thing. Even with this extension, the heat will be on if they’re sitting at home in September once again. They have an easy start against the Lions, who are still a year away from being competitive.

Fremantle (+26.5) vs Port Adelaide

The pre-season buzz team finally gets to roll out their star studded new recruits. Rockliff, Watts, Motlop, Thomas, McKenzie, the assembling of a new dream team at Alberton Oval. If I was making a premiership push off the back of a free agency/trade spending spree, I wouldn’t have picked the two flakiest players in the game. Jack Watts hasn’t played at a consistent level at any point across his entire career and Motlop’s best football was four-years ago. I say bring back Aaron Young, a victim of the modern game where kicking goals as a forward is seen as a negative.

Hawthorn (-1.5) vs Collingwood

Another year begins with Nathan Buckley in charge of a team with no key position talent, injuries and little chance of doing anything. It’s going to fun putting up with another year of a media circus at the Westpac Centre when Collingwood start 2-6 for about the 5th year in a row and journalists are calling for Buckley’s head. At least Cyril Rioli is supposedly going to be back for this game, yay everyone celebrate, Cywil is back!

Gold Coast (Push) vs North Melbourne

It’s hard to find a game so irrelevant in Round 1, but here we go. Fitting that the game is being played in Cairns.

GWS Giants (-17.5) vs Western Bulldogs

There’s been a lot of buzz around the Giants with many believing they’re a legit premiership chance. I do like the Giants and they’ll be up there again, but what exactly have they done to get better? The Giants were a long way off last season, despite their preliminary final finish. In the final month of their season, including Round 23, they lost to the other three preliminary finalists by an average of 39-points and none of those losses were particularly competitive. They did face their fair share of injury issues last year and a fit Stephen Coniglio is a big plus, but their improvement rests on the next group of youngsters from the more recent drafts and how quickly will they get better, if at all?

Melbourne (Push) vs Geelong

I have no idea who will win this game and being a pessimistic supporter, I assume the Cats will be jumped by a hungry side who are surely desperate for finals. Geelong has an injury list the length of your arm and even with Gary Ablett seemingly making his return, Paddy Dangerfield won’t play. He won’t even be there biggest loss for the Round 1, Lachie Henderson’s injury is disastrous for Geelong. They had two legendary defenders retire and have done nothing to replace them. Good luck relying on Harry Taylor as your number one key defender.

Sydney (-17.5) vs West Coast

Short of Geelong’s dominance at GMHBA Stadium, no team had a greater advantage at home than the Eagles at Subiaco. That’s now gone, with the dimensions of their new stadium being closer to Etihad Stadium. They will still no doubt have their ridiculous advantage from umpires each home game, but they’ll be facing a similar challenge to visiting teams, becoming accustomed to the new ground. They don’t get an easy opening against the Swans who will be locked in from Round 1 after the calamity in 2017. An away win first up.

Season Record

0/0 (N/A)

One last note, the over hit on every game in Round 1 last year. The first round generally sees a lot of high scoring, just something to remember.

JLT Series Week 1 Musings: The beginning of a competitive pre-season

Port Adelaide’s Dom Barry had an impressive game against the Eagles.

We had our first taste of pre-season football with four games across the country. Thanks to the league’s bizarre fixturing, the first week isn’t even technically over with Carlton to host St. Kilda on Wednesday night at Ikon Park.

However, we got four solid games, a look at both of last year’s Grand Finalists and two of the biggest players in free agency, Essendon and Port Adelaide, unveiled some of their new toys. Enough to make a few assertions from the beginning of the JLT series.

Teams are taking it seriously, meaning better football

The AFL may have lucked out with the addition of the AFLX. Cutting the pre-season down to just two full games has suddenly prompted coaches and teams to give a damn. Two-games appears to be the minimum players need before the home-and-away stuff begins so clubs have loaded up with teams vaguely resembling their best 22. And with better teams on the field, it meant better games. Richmond looked dominant with a near full strength line-up and Adelaide flexed their muscles for a half. It’s no coincidence three of the four favourites won on the opening weekend and even the Power were within a late game collapse of making it a sweep for the favourites.

Essendon and Port Adelaide’s recruiting sprees got off to a slow start

The Bombers and Power loaded up in the off-season and neither teams would have been overly impressed by what their new additions produced. Essendon were blown off the field after the 10-minute mark of the first quarter, right around the time Jake Stringer was sent off with a nasty looking head gash. The enigmatic forward/midfielder returned periodically from then on, finishing with just the nine-disposals. Adam Saad started brightly with a trademark goal, but went in-and-out from that point. Devon Smith was one positive from the day, the former Giant had a strong outing with 26-disposals and one-goal.

It was an even bleaker picture for the Power who unfurled four of their six new experienced recruits, including Jack Watts and Steven Motlop. Watts was serviceable early with a goal, but only finished with nine-disposals. Motlop was barely sighted, finishing with eight-disposals and even more worryingly, headed to the bench late with a calf strain that could require further time off. Throw in Lindsay Thomas’ four-disposals and Jack Trengove’s 11 and the new boys combined for just 32-disposals on the day.

Melbourne’s hype will continue to grow

Richmond’s demolition of Essendon aside, the Dees’ big win over North Melbourne was the highlight of the weekend. Melbourne looked clinical, organised in defence, produced quick transition off half back and had a host of different goalkickers, including highly touted first year player Bayley Fritsch who kicked three. Jake Lever’s ability to free up their better ball users in defence will be so vital and the likes of Michael Hibberd and Jayden Hunt had a field day releasing off half back. It was interesting to note Christian Petracca spent most of the time at half forward as a move into the centre may be on the cards at some point this season.

Draftees show signs

We only got a glimpse of a few top picks from the National Draft, with three first rounders running around for their respective clubs. Of that trio, Andrew Brayshaw was the most impressive for the Dockers. He only finished with the 14-disposals, but went at 89% efficiency and looked really clean, decisive and intelligent. North Melbourne’s Luke Davis-Uniacke found the going a little tougher, but showed enough with 12-disposals, nine by hand and eight being contested. The other was Jack Higgins who played less than half of the match and seems a longshot to debut early this year. Outside of those highly touted recruits, some other youngster to impress included Port’s Dom Barry whose second stint at the top level saw him shine with 20-disposals and a goal. Adelaide’s Lachlan Murphy looked really lively in the forward pocket, kicking three goals and if the Eagle’s Liam Ryan every holds onto one, he’ll take mark of the year at some point in his career.