2017 NFL Free Agency Day One Musings

Cleveland came to Houston’s rescue and traded for Brock Osweiler, “buying” a second-round pick.

Surely somewhere deep inside their Park Avenue headquarters, the NFL thanks their lucky stars they have the Cleveland Browns and curse the day they let the first incarnation of this treasured franchise to leave for Baltimore. The Browns were the worst team in 2016, yet are one of the best at creating headlines

The opening day of the 2017 NFL Free Agency period and the start of the New Year in the league already steals the sporting headlines, however the Browns added the biggest storyline which sent Twitter and the NFL world into meltdown.

Brock Osweiler, the $72 million mistake in Houston, was traded to Cleveland on the eve of the new NFL year and league Twitter initially destroyed the Browns, understandably, and then suddenly began praising Paul DePodesta and the front office for the innovative deal which sent Osweiler and a second-round pick from the Texans to the Browns for a 4th and a 6th round pick in the upcoming draft.

The deal has now been labelled as “creative” and considered a win-win for both franchises as Cleveland essentially paid $18 million for a second-round pick. The deal does make sense for both teams, but it’s hardly a game-changer.

Rich Smith looks like a magician, having now washed his hands clean of the disaster that was signing Osweiler to the monster deal last off-season, however the team is still without a capable starting quarterback and sound out of the race for Tony Romo who looks destined to end up in Denver.

The Browns get another second rounder this year to make it 22 picks across the next two drafts. It means another dart to throw at the dartboard and knowing Cleveland’s history, there’s no guarantee they nail the pick, or any pick for that matter.

The caveat is if they can pull off a trade, which has to be the strategy, however their main target doesn’t seem available for any price. Jimmy Garoppolo is unlikely to be traded, no matter what Cleveland offers.

The main question and where Cleveland could have improved the deal would have been whether they could have squeezed more out of Houston to help free up the cap space Osweiler was stealing next season. But, nevertheless the deal is done and the Browns livened up free agency once again.

The trade kicked off the new NFL year; however the action began well before 8am AEST time and now on to other matters, from a typically jam-packed opening day of free agency.

Jags gonna jag

Jacksonville goes all out to spend as much money as possible on beefing up their defence. Nope, it’s not 2016, or 2015, or 2014. The Jaguars have broken the bank once again, splashing the cash on a number of high profile defensive free agents. They began by handing Calais Campbell a massive $14 million per year deal to beef up an already loaded, money-wise, defensive line and then grabbed free agency darling A.J. Bouye from their division rivals for $67.5 million over five-years and Barry Church from Dallas to add starters in their secondary. At some point all this spending will generate some wins for the struggling AFC South outfit.

Washington are imploding, which is not like them

The off-season drama at Redskins Park is just as crazy as usual with an exodus of team members, both on and off the field.

Having already lost one wide receiver in Pierre Garcon to San Francisco, DeSean Jackson will line up across from Mike Evans in Tampa Bay, as he accepted a $35-million deal over three-years. Defensive tackle Chris Baker joined the speedy wide receiver in moving south to Tampa and their quarterback drama continued to roll on as Kirk Cousins continued rumblings of his desire to move to San Fran.

Lastly, the saga of Scot McCloughan finally came to an end in Landover as he was officially fired having already been driven out of the building by a toxic front office which even went and tarnished his reputation on the way out.

Oh, at least they did re-sign Jay Gruden for two more years.

NFC West contrasts

There were a lot of comings and goings in a division which struggled overall in 2016, with Arizona and San Francisco leading the news.

The Cardinals lost a host of defensive starters with Campbell being joined by safety pair Tony Jefferson and D.J. Swearinger who left for Baltimore and Washington respectively. They are also poised to lose linebacker Kevin Minter, although did acquire safety Antoine Bethea from the Niners and had already re-signed pass rusher Chandler Jones for five more seasons.

San Francisco was the opposite and has thrown money around to simply add capable starters. Including their own re-signings, the 49ers have added 12 players, with some costing a fortune. They can pair newly added Garcon with Aldrick Robinson to provide some weapons for whichever former Chicago quarterbacks starts, with Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley both moving to Santa Clara.

The Niners have also added linebacker Malcolm Smith, defensive tackle Earl Mitchell, tight end Logan Paulsen and full back Kyle Juszczyk, who becomes the ninth highest paid rusher in the league, receiving $21-million over four-years.

Mike Glennon gets paid and Chicago fans hold their breath

No news on Romo or Garoppolo on day one, however the next big name on the quarterback off-season list found a new home. The Buccaneers back-up has found his starting job with the Bears and got a massive payday to go with his promotion, a three-year deal at an average of $14.5 million. It’s no doubt a massive gamble to throw starting QB money to a guy who hasn’t started a game since 2014, but Glennon has at least shown some signs.

The big issue facing the Bears and Glennon is their lack of receivers and the loss of Alshon Jeffery, who signed a one-year deal worth $14 million in Philadelphia, won’t help that. They did add former Pittsburgh wideout Markus Wheaton and tight end Dion Sims from Miami, but it’s not exactly an imposing receiver group and Glennon isn’t going to play at a decent level without the talent around him.

Other titbits

– Safety Micah Hyde left Green Bay for Buffalo and looms a decent signing for a team which also lost cornerback Stephon Gilmore to New England.

– Speaking of New England, your candidate for departing Patriot who re-joins the team before the end of the deal he just signed is Logan Ryan. The depth cornerback signed a massive $30 million deal over three-years with Tennessee and will be back under Bill Belichick by 2019, for half the cost.

– Typically quiet running back market with Seattle providing the main news as they sniff around both Eddie Lacy and Jamaal Charles. All quiet on the Adrian Peterson front, the same for Latavius Murray and LeGarrette Blount.

Jay Cutler was released by Chicago, finally.

Super Bowl Redo: Why universe, why?

The strip sack which turned the game in the Patriots favour.

The night before the Super Bowl, I was flicking through my Foxtel IQ looking for the 2014 New England-Seattle Super Bowl to have a quick re-watch before Monday. Before I got there, I found the 2014 NFC Championship game between Green Bay and Seattle.

Compelled to re-watch the final quarter and overtime, it’s easy to forget what a remarkable game that was. How many ridiculous things went Seattle’s way and the excruciatingly brutal loss suffered by the Packers. Who would have thought the next day we’d see a collapse that tops Green Bay’s capitulation? And then some.

Atlanta’s 25-point blown lead and eventual loss in overtime is without compare in terms of NFL chokejobs and it’s hard to come up with a collapse from another sport more brutal without thorough research. My yardstick in the AFL, not by margin or magnitude, but in shock value, is North Melbourne’s collapse against Adelaide in Round 9, 2013. The Kangaroos led by 30-points with less than ten minutes to go on the Channel Seven countdown clock and were pipped on the line by a point after Jared Petrenko kicked the winning goal with 20-seconds to play. That was mid-season in a largely meaningless Sunday afternoon game at Etihad Stadium; this was the freaking Super Bowl.

For every Atlanta fan, and any sane NFL fans who despise everything about the Patriots, the final 20 minutes on Monday felt like death by 1,000 cuts. A long, slow and painful piece of torture while the 28-3 advantage was slowly whittled away as Tom Brady stood with consummate ease in the pocket and carved through the Falcon’s secondary like a knife cutting through butter. What made it so painful is that everyone could see it coming and yet you just sat there helpless. Every supporter of good around the world and even Atlanta’s own coaching staff and players were powerless to stop the onslaught.

There were four key plays which I will remember from the rollercoaster of emotions everyone experienced in the four engrossing hours. From a growing sense of joy to utter despair.

Robert Alford pick-six (Starting to believe)

Despite Atlanta establishing a quick 14-0 second quarter lead, behind a dynamic and efficient offence which had the Patriots defence scrambling, there was a feeling at any point that Belichick would kick the offence into gear and respond. When Brady dropped back on 3rd and 6 with pressure in his face and missed the roaming Alford who picked off his wobbly pass and walked into the endzone, there was a genuine feeling that the Falcons were going to pull it off.

Julian Edelman’s pass attempt which lofted incomplete (Good has prevailed over evil)

Not only does Belichick and Brady have an extensive trick bag, their tricks always seem to work. Edelman hitting a deep touchdown in the divisional round against Baltimore in 2014 has always stood out as an example of the slices of luck which always seem to go New England’s way. When Belichick turned to his wide receiver’s arm once again, it went over the head of the outstretched Dion Lewis. It should have been the sign that luck wasn’t going to be on the Patriots’ side, even if they converted a fourth-down pass on the next play.

Donta Hightower’s strip sack fumble on Matt Ryan (The game’s turning)

New England had drawn within 16-points and theoretically, with multiple two-conversions, made it a two-score game, however it wasn’t quite panic stations yet. When Hightower had a free rush on Ryan thanks to Devonta Freeman blowing a blocking assignment, alarm bells began to ring. The Pats recovering the fumble sparked a turning point, Atlanta was going to have to fight desperately to hold on.

Trey Flowers’ sack on Matt Ryan, knocking Atlanta out of field goal range (No! Whyyyyyy?!)

Julio Jones had his David Tyree moment, a spectacular catch in a clutch moment to sink New England in a Super Bowl. Before getting to the tragic aftermath, the more you watch the initial Ryan scramble & perfectly placed throw and the incredible piece of athletic brilliance from Julio Jones, the better the catch looks. On Ryan’s part, there were few spots he could have thrown that ball without it being intercepted by Eric Rowe and that he lofted it high enough to clear Rowe was an achievement in itself. But Julio defied gravity and all logic in coming down with that ball. Of course, despite having the Super Bowl won with a field goal, Ryan was sacked by Flowers with the drive somehow ending in a punt. As soon as Matt Bosher was called upon, the game was going to come down to a two-point conversion because Atlanta weren’t stopping New England on the next drive.

Four moments painting a picture of a journey from ecstasy to tragedy. To be clear, I don’t like the Falcons, sure they aren’t as hated as Carolina or New Orleans, but they are still a division rival. However, even I’m heartbroken by what happened. How do you come back from that? How do Falcons fans get through the next month? How do they trudge through the off season? How do they return next year?

It is surely a loss that will rock the core of the franchise and serious questions can be asked on the toll the loss will take on Atlanta next season. They were already due to take a massive hit with the loss of Kyle Shanahan, who inexplicably has become somewhat of a villain. While many would have been screaming at the TV when Ryan went down after Jones’ catch, infuriated that Atlanta simply weren’t running the ball to guarantee a makeable field goal and drain the clock, Shanahan was still one of the key architects to the Falcons impressive season and if anything, the criticism against him has become a little overblown.

Without Shanahan, Ryan must prove his ability to play at an MVP level with newly appointed offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, although keep in mind that all the pieces will remain. With all of Brady’s dominance due to a tired and impotent Atlanta pass rush, it can’t be forgotten that the Falcons offence only managed 21-points for the game and crucially failed to sustain drives throughout the second half, with four of their drives resulting in three-and-outs. More staggeringly, after building the 28-3 advantage, the team only ran 12-more plays for the game. This obviously due to New England’s dominance in time of possession, but Atlanta had their moments and with their consistency on offence all year, their inability to score at least another field goal or even drain the clock was extremely deflating.

The defence played almost the perfect first half. Alone they outscored the Patriots 7-3, but did so much more. They forced constant pressure on Brady, leading to inaccurate throws and the vital pick six. Their young and speedy linebackers swarmed the field and they stifled a running game which loomed as a decisive advantage for New England pre-game. The one downside, which proved instrumental, was that they may have played too well, they forced turnovers and scored too quickly, Atlanta simply never had the ball.

It was a horror show in the last quarter and overtime, they were cooked, the pass rush disappeared and Brady got into an unstoppable groove. Even worse, when they had the few opportunities to force turnovers or make a stop, they could never quite complete the job. Vic Beasley nearly sacked Brady in his own endzone, they allowed a fourth down conversion previously mentioned and what seemed to be the final nail, Edelman signature catch was kept off the ground by Alford’s ankle.

Once the coin toss fell as heads gifting possession to the Pats in overtime, the Super Bowl was over, Atlanta must have smelt defeat and on cue New England strolled down the field and James White of all people capped off his signature day with his third touchdown, there’s just no such thing as karma.

In the immediate aftermath and in the ensuing days, a similarity between that NFC Championship in Seattle and this past Super Bowl has emerged, like for Green Bay, Atlanta needed just one more stop for the rest of the game, just one more score, just one thing to go there way and it never did. While the moments weren’t as crystal clear as Seattle’s successful onside kick or their incredible two-point conversion, the Falcons needed just one more moment to go their way and they would have been Super Bowl champions.

Facing a 25-point deficit midway through the third quarter of the Super Bowl, a team needs everything to go right, there is zero room for error; they need to make every important play. New England did all that, everything went right.

At our Super Bowl event, we were waiting for that one final moment which would end the Patriots charge and we could all celebrate an Atlanta victory. Unfortunately for us, the city of Atlanta and Falcons fans all over the world, it never happened.

The Rodgers clock is ticking

Green Bay proved no match for Atlanta, losing 44-21.

On the surface, the NFC Championship game loomed as a battle between two powerful offences and a pair of fairly mediocre defences.

Digging deeper and it became apparent that Atlanta and Green Bay was a match between an almost historic offence against an historic quarterback and an average defence against something turning into a trainwreck.

If Green Bay was going to stand any chance in the Georgia Dome, it was going to require another miracle effort from Rodgers and having produced countless miracle efforts down the stretch and into the playoffs, the magic couldn’t have lasted forever.

Rodgers was fine yesterday, he just wasn’t incredible and against a Falcons powerhouse, Green Bay looked overmatched and out of their depth, bringing back memories from the first half of this season and the 2015 season, where without hall of fame play from Rodgers, the Packers drifted around the edges of the playoffs.

Outside of the quarterback position, Green Bay are an incomplete team, severely lacking the talent on defence to be a true Super Bowl contender. For the fifth time in six years, the Packers reached the divisional round or further without reaching the Super Bowl. This clearly suggests they have major deficiencies which show up every January.

Top of that list is clearly Green Bay’s defence and defensive coordinator Dom Capers was in the gun again yesterday from fans and pundits. Capers has overseen the Packers defence since 2009 and every year it seems to battle.

In fairness to Capers for the NFC title game, the secondary was already ravaged by injury and the loss of Micah Hyde, an important utility piece who played multiple positions in the secondary, was the final nail in coffin. There was already no Sam Shields.

Ladarius Gunter, an undrafted free agent in his rookie season, was already playing a larger role than previously envisioned and above his current ability. Man-on-man coverage against Julio Jones was always going to be a slaughter and Jones’ 180-yards and two-touchdowns failed to invalidate any predictions.

Outside of the hospital ward secondary, Green Bay’s front seven is aging and lacks any playmakers. Their pass rush failed to put any indent on Atlanta’s offensive machine, Clay Matthews has been non-existent all playoffs and Julius Peppers is reaching the end of the road.

It wasn’t a fair fight and the Falcons had their way all game, marching up and down the field via a variety of receiving threats and the combination of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the backfield.

Atlanta displayed a truly great offence reaching peak performance and pre-game assumptions that Green Bay were a match proved to be unfounded.

Mason Crosby’s missed field goal on their opening drive was an ominous start and an Aaron Ripkowski fumble in the redzone on the next drive meant alarm bells were ringing, the Packers did not have the capability to reel in a two-score deficit, not against this Falcons team and by half time the game was over.

With Green Bay forced to play catch-up, it highlighted issues on offence that were simply masked in their playoff run by number 12. Their running game was non-existent and a one-dimensional offence took away any mystery, allowing the Falcons to zero-in on the passing game.

Eddie Lacy will return from injury next season, however his inconsistencies throughout his career brings in to question the level of improvement they can expect from Lacy over Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael.

Focusing on the passing game, Rodgers is constantly lauded for his ability to make any receiver great, which while a compliment for the QB, questions the ability of each receivers. Without Jordy Nelson last season, the Packers offence lacked speed and the ability to separate and these issues still remain. Rodgers ability to throw receivers open is unparalleled but it’s not sustainable. Those wild improvised plays are incredible, but Green Bay need to operate in a standard offence.

For all of Rodgers’ greatness, the era in Green Bay still only has one Super Bowl and a litany of heartbreak playoff losses. Their defence has been a constant battle throughout this entire period and the 2016 effort shows it still requires some extensive remodelling.

Surviving off ridiculousness from Aaron Rodgers is fun and exciting, but it cannot create legitimate playoff runs. He needs help, right now, while the magic is still there.

Divisional Round Preview: At least make it a challenge

Houston were shutout in New England in the regular season, a repeat of that is on the cards.

If there was one upside from a fairly mediocre wildcard weekend, aside from Aaron Rodgers’ domination and a second week of “Boatgate”, it was that only eight of the best teams remain, setting up a mouth-watering (or as Ray Lewis likes to say, “mouth got water”) divisional round featuring three dream match-ups.

On the NFC side of the playoff bracket, you could mix up the four remaining combatants in any combination and only get great games. Seattle didn’t really exceed expectations in their 26-6 win over Detroit, however at least they are peaking and the hint of a dangerous running game led by Thomas Rawls and a defence which is still formidable suggests they will at least make it tough for Atlanta.

Green Bay travelling to Jerryworld would be a suitable NFC Championship game with Rodgers’ playing at an all-time level and looming as a serious roadblock for the 13-3 Cowboys team that would definitely have preferred a meeting with New York, despite the fact that the Giants swept their division rivals in the regular season.

Kansas City hosting a white-hot Pittsburgh looms to be an intriguing matchup as Le’Veon Bell looks to follow up his impressive playoff debut, this time against a fiercer defensive unit in front of an opposing and raucous crowd at Arrowhead Stadium.

So three of the best possible match-ups fill this weekend, a good way to move on from the previous weekend of one-sided romps which included an overmatched Connor Cook, Matt Moore recovering from a concussion in the space of a few minutes and Odell Beckham putting a hole in a Lambeau Field locker room wall, his lone highlight after a poor game.

The one tiny issue with the second round of the playoffs is the obvious fact that there are four games this weekend. The fourth game of course features the Houston Texans, a team which to their credit did what they had to do and eliminated the Raiders behind a solid defensive showing and surprisingly competent quarterback play from Brock Osweiler.

Despite this, the Texans are really the only team that doesn’t belong in the final eight. They lucked out against the Raiders, with Derek Carr on the sidelines, watching on TV on the other side of the US. So well done for getting this far, but realistically they would have been the easy beats for whoever was lucky enough to host them and who gets that privilege on Sunday? Why who else but the New England Patriots.

It’s amazing how the universe decides each year, how can we make it even easier for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady? They already have an uncompetitive division in which they’ve ruled for almost the entire 21st century, they already have the smartest coach in the league who despite being superior already, makes it his mission each and every week to embarrass the slew of mediocre coaches in the league. And they already have one of the best quarterbacks of all time, who has the means to access the best care and recovery methods to ensure he can play at a top level until he’s 65.

No, it’s not enough letting them sleepwalk through the regular season into a division title and usually a bye week, let’s make their playoff path as simple as possible. The Patriots go into Sunday’s game as almost unbackable favourites, it’s a mere certainly that they won’t only win, they’ll destroy Houston for another divisional round blowout.

Just look at the recent history of who New England has faced for a trip to the AFC Championship game. Last year they met a Chiefs team which was overmatched offensively to keep up with Patriots and even threw in some insane Andy Reid clock management, winning by a touchdown in game which was never that close. In the 2013 season, they waxed Indianapolis 43-22 after the Colts had come off a shootout with the Chiefs. In 2012 they faced their first meeting with Houston and won by 13, and in 2011 they were able to enjoy a match-up with Denver, led by Tim Tebow, right after the magic had disappeared, crushing the Broncos 45-10.

It makes sense though that in 2016 the Pats would get an “Advance straight to go” into the Championship game. After surviving the horrors of “Deflategate” in the opening month of the season, New England have had a ridiculously easy schedule for a Super Bowl contender and the added benefit of key injuries in the AFC making it even more of a cakewalk.

The Pats faced only four-playoff teams in the regular season for a total of five games and even that doesn’t tell the true story. Two of those games were divisional games against the Miami, the second of which coming against Matt Moore. They faced Houston, who as stated above, shouldn’t be in the playoffs at this point and even faced the Steelers with back-up Landry Jones as quarterback.

Their playoff path was made much easier once Carr went down, meaning they would avoid having to face both Kansas City and Pittsburgh in the playoffs and heck, even with Ryan Tannehill going down it meant their final game against the Dolphins, which netted them the top seed, became a non-event.

So hopefully we can move on past Deflategate when the Pats lead 35-7 in the third quarter and Osweiler is being roasted on Twitter and recognise how easy the Pats have it every year.

Here are the four games, while I’ll go and be sick.

Seattle @ Atlanta (-5)

The 2012 divisional round epic played out between the Falcons and the Seahawks has quietly been forgotten as truly memorable playoff classic. Russell Wilson sat on the verge of being a playoff hero in his rookie year, leading the visitors in a two-minute drill, with Marshawn Lynch scoring a touchdown with just 25 seconds to go. Matt Ryan quickly answered and moved the home team into field goal range in 17 seconds, where Matt Bryant did the rest, claiming victory for Atlanta. The teams don’t seem as evenly matched this time around with the Falcons having a superior offence to last time and Seattle a defence closer to average.

The Falcons are going to put up at least 30-points, they have done that in almost every game this season, so can the Seahawks match that? Their hope comes at the line of scrimmage, where in Week 6, Seattle overpowered the Falcons offensive line and put consistent pressure on Ryan. They also limited Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman to 50-rushing yards on 17 carries. However, Ryan still threw for 335-yards and three touchdowns and that was in Seattle’s building.

Apart from Vic Beasley, the Seahawks won’t face a ferocious pass rush, so they will be able to keep Wilson upright, however they simply don’t have the weapons and are not playing well enough to top Atlanta.

Houston @ New England (-15)

See above, this will be a whitewash. A fun game to play while watching the Texans get blown out will be to count the number of JJ Watt sideline shots. The reported number last Sunday was 16, he’ll try to top that this week.

Green Bay (+4.5) @ Dallas

For the second playoff weekend, the Packers look set to be in the juiciest match-up of the four-game slate. If it lives up to expectation, their meeting with the Cowboys will be a good one. Rodgers and the Green Bay offence overcame a slow start at Lambeau and turned on the jets in a second half demolition of the Giants.

The star QB has returned to peak performance about a year-and-a-half of more mediocre form. A quick sidenote on that, there’s a lot of revisionist history going on regarding Rodgers and his struggles in the first half of the season, it’s almost as if it never happened because he’s playing so well now. There’s nothing wrong with criticising a player and an offence when they’re not performing, even if it is Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers.

For Dallas, they watched the Packers obliterate a Giants defence which is far superior to their own. The positive is their offence can work to control the clock and limit Green Bay possessions and Rodgers’ time on the field. The wildcard is Dak Prescott’s first playoff game, will he be nervous? Will he miss some throws early? And will he turn the ball over?

This is going to be tight and for all of Green Bay’s good work on this winning run, the Cowboys regular season dominance can’t be discounted or forgotten. Jerry Jones will be looking extra smug in his luxury box at the end of this one. #Dezcaughtit

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City (-1.5)

The closest match-up and the toughest game to call sets up an epic in Kansas City. Pittsburgh didn’t do their chances any harm in Miami seeing as that game was over midway through the first quarter. The Dolphins may have made it interesting on the scoreboard, but the Steelers were always a couple of gears above their opponents.

The unveiling of Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger as a trio on offence did not fail to disappoint. Bell smoked Miami for two touchdowns, Brown did the same and Roethlisberger completed his first 12 passes. The only lowlight was an injury to Big Ben which left him in a moonboot, however knowing his history; the moonboot was probably more for affect than anything.

Kansas City are at a level above Miami and it’s hard to see a scenario of the Chiefs getting blown away early. This is a big game for the Chiefs, it’s time they capitalised on two-seasons of regular season consistency and went deep into the playoffs. Their defence is comparable to last season where they fell at this hurdle; however the addition of Tyreek Hill on offence is the real wildcard. They’ve lacked a spark on offence in past seasons; however the rookie sensation can open up the field for Alex Smith, who has a patchy playoff record (2-3). Get it done Kansas City.