Tag: 2018

Round 1 Preview: Get over it Richmond, move on

Richmond’s Nathan Broad didn’t have quite the same level of fun as his teammates, this off-season.

It is finally here, Round 1, marking the official end of the off-season, dominated by one team, guess who?

Yes, if you’re a fan of any of the other 17 teams, you’ve no doubt enjoyed the last six-months, a Tigers lovefest across all forms of media. Damien Hardwick recounting on a daily basis how he had to change his methods after the 2016 disaster. Dustin Martin suddenly becoming a marketable face of the league, and for some reason, Bonds underwear. Alex Rance again trying to drum up some publicity with a faux retirement. Jack Riewoldt’s wedding. Brendon Gale being Brendon Gale, etc. etc.

After the Bulldogs broke their premiership drought in 2016, I didn’t think the level of coverage on a single team could be topped, that the media could spend more time focusing on a single team, but alas they have. And I get that there will be a greater focus on the reigning premiers, it makes sense. You’re going to hear about the Tigers more than say, North Melbourne, who no one ever has any interest in, particularly this year. However, at some point, enough is enough, surely.

The entire 2018 season has been built on Richmond, from the marketing by the league, to the marketing by major TV networks, to which players are constantly being promoted. And I pray and hope, it all falls apart and quickly.

Richmond have eight marque games on either Thursday or Friday night, with the ANZAC Day eve game against Melbourne on a Tuesday night thrown in for good measure. Can you imagine if the Tigers put up a Bulldogs-like premiership defence? Wouldn’t it be glorious. A slow start, in-fighting, injuries, turmoil and the return of supporters threatening to microwave memberships and burning down Punt Road, the good old days.

Anyway, what else has been going on outside of Richmond? Well the AFL has botched Tasmania and how to handle sex scandals inside AFL House. Collingwood are still a dumpster fire. Jeff Kennett is back, that’s just what we need. And some Melbourne players didn’t want to go on a pre-season camp, which means according to some meatheads in the media, we should write off their entire season before it even begins.

I do enjoy the likes of Wayne Carey and Cam Mooney calling Melbourne players soft for going to the AFLPA to voice their concerns regarding training habits at the clubs. It’s not like that’s the reason the AFLPA exists and I mean they don’t even go around king hitting opponents off the ball, now that’s toughness.

So, the season begins tonight, which means it’s still prediction season. Some general thoughts for the 2018 season. Sydney’s midfield will return to being a powerhouse. I don’t like the Port Adelaide hype but it’s more deserved than the Essendon hype. Free agent and trade acquisitions seem to guarantee success in the eyes of some, the Bombers have major holes. The Dees will play finals and are the best chance at replicating the Dogs and Tigers of years before. For some reason, I’m bullish on Fremantle, I like what they’re building despite their deficiencies up forward. Gold Coast not having a home ground for half a season is an absolute travesty, although Stuart Dew seems like a competent coach. Geelong will do what they do every year under Chris Scott and fall short in the finals and North will be irrelevant, again.

Some major predictions;

Premiers – Sydney
Runners Up – Adelaide
Wooden Spoon – North Melbourne
Brownlow – Bryce Gibbs

Ladder

  1. Sydney
  2. GWS Giants
  3. Adelaide
  4. Richmond
  5. Melbourne
  6. Geelong
  7. Port Adelaide
  8. Hawthorn
  9. Collingwood
  10. Fremantle
  11. St. Kilda
  12. Essendon
  13. Western Bulldogs
  14. Gold Coast
  15. West Coast
  16. Brisbane
  17. Carlton
  18. North Melbourne

Season Wins Over/Under

Adelaide (15.5) – Over
Brisbane (6.5) – Under
Carlton (6.5) – Under
Collingwood (10.5) – Under
Essendon (12.5) – Under
Fremantle (9.5) – Over
Geelong (14.5) – Under
Gold Coast (5.5) – Over
GWS Giants (14.5) – Over
Hawthorn (10.5) – Over
Melbourne (12.5) – Over
North Melbourne (6.5) – Under
Port Adelaide (13.5) – Under
Richmond (13.5) – Over
St. Kilda (9.5) – Over
Sydney (15.5) – Over
West Coast (10.5) – Under
Western Bulldogs (11.5) – Under

And now, onwards to Round 1;

Richmond (-30.5) vs Carlton

The Tigers coronation in front of 80,000 insufferable Richmond supporters with 10,000 Carlton supporters asking themselves why they bothered to turn up and be surrounded by these people. Despite all the optimism around Brendon Bolton and this improving Carlton list, they only won six-games in 2017 and went 1-9 from Round 14, giving Bolton a 2-18 record between Rounds 14 and 23 across his first two-seasons. They’ve also lost two of their best five players from last year with Gibbs at Adelaide and Sam Docherty being lost for the season with an ACL tear. Hopefully the Blues will stick with Richmond for a half or longer, but a six to seven goal loss is on the cards.

Adelaide (-2.5) vs Essendon

It’s probably no different to any other season, but there seems to be a lot of injuries on the eve of the year. Adelaide haven’t escaped the injury bug with captain Taylor Walker being ruled out of their opener and Brad Crouch looking at almost two months on the sidelines with groin soreness. The Bombers lost Marty Gleeson in the JLT series with a serious ankle injury and small forward Orazio Fantasia will miss several games. These odds are much closer than they should be and the Crows will cruise.

Brisbane (+24.5) vs St. Kilda

The Saints are a strange case, in the words of Damo Barrett, “where are they at?” St. Kilda are stuck in no man’s land, sort of good enough to sneak into the finals, but won’t do any damage. As all clubs seem to love doing, the Saints went and re-signed Alan Richardson despite him not having achieved a thing. Even with this extension, the heat will be on if they’re sitting at home in September once again. They have an easy start against the Lions, who are still a year away from being competitive.

Fremantle (+26.5) vs Port Adelaide

The pre-season buzz team finally gets to roll out their star studded new recruits. Rockliff, Watts, Motlop, Thomas, McKenzie, the assembling of a new dream team at Alberton Oval. If I was making a premiership push off the back of a free agency/trade spending spree, I wouldn’t have picked the two flakiest players in the game. Jack Watts hasn’t played at a consistent level at any point across his entire career and Motlop’s best football was four-years ago. I say bring back Aaron Young, a victim of the modern game where kicking goals as a forward is seen as a negative.

Hawthorn (-1.5) vs Collingwood

Another year begins with Nathan Buckley in charge of a team with no key position talent, injuries and little chance of doing anything. It’s going to fun putting up with another year of a media circus at the Westpac Centre when Collingwood start 2-6 for about the 5th year in a row and journalists are calling for Buckley’s head. At least Cyril Rioli is supposedly going to be back for this game, yay everyone celebrate, Cywil is back!

Gold Coast (Push) vs North Melbourne

It’s hard to find a game so irrelevant in Round 1, but here we go. Fitting that the game is being played in Cairns.

GWS Giants (-17.5) vs Western Bulldogs

There’s been a lot of buzz around the Giants with many believing they’re a legit premiership chance. I do like the Giants and they’ll be up there again, but what exactly have they done to get better? The Giants were a long way off last season, despite their preliminary final finish. In the final month of their season, including Round 23, they lost to the other three preliminary finalists by an average of 39-points and none of those losses were particularly competitive. They did face their fair share of injury issues last year and a fit Stephen Coniglio is a big plus, but their improvement rests on the next group of youngsters from the more recent drafts and how quickly will they get better, if at all?

Melbourne (Push) vs Geelong

I have no idea who will win this game and being a pessimistic supporter, I assume the Cats will be jumped by a hungry side who are surely desperate for finals. Geelong has an injury list the length of your arm and even with Gary Ablett seemingly making his return, Paddy Dangerfield won’t play. He won’t even be there biggest loss for the Round 1, Lachie Henderson’s injury is disastrous for Geelong. They had two legendary defenders retire and have done nothing to replace them. Good luck relying on Harry Taylor as your number one key defender.

Sydney (-17.5) vs West Coast

Short of Geelong’s dominance at GMHBA Stadium, no team had a greater advantage at home than the Eagles at Subiaco. That’s now gone, with the dimensions of their new stadium being closer to Etihad Stadium. They will still no doubt have their ridiculous advantage from umpires each home game, but they’ll be facing a similar challenge to visiting teams, becoming accustomed to the new ground. They don’t get an easy opening against the Swans who will be locked in from Round 1 after the calamity in 2017. An away win first up.

Season Record

0/0 (N/A)

One last note, the over hit on every game in Round 1 last year. The first round generally sees a lot of high scoring, just something to remember.

The white noise around the Browns

Wide receiver Jarvis Landry arrives in Cleveland from Miami in exchange for two draft picks.

The idea of hope must be dangerous for Cleveland Browns fans. They haven’t had much to be hopeful for, really since they restarted as a franchise in 1999.

They would also have a fear of hype around the team. Last year’s draft saw them trade back to collect three first round picks which they used on Myles Garrett, Jabrill Peppers and David Njoku.

The haul was met with almost universal praise and the addition of quarterback Deshone Kizer on day two saw their draft class as a foundation for improvement in 2017.

Of course, the group of rookies proved only to be the foundation for more losing as the Browns outdid their 1-15 2016 campaign, completing the first winless season since the Detroit Lions in 2008 leading to another top pick in this upcoming draft.

Despite the positive draft grades and general sense of optimism coming out of Philadelphia from Browns camp, the post-draft hot takes didn’t bear fruit on the field, at all.

So, hype around Cleveland with this current administration, which somehow largely remained intact after their winless season, is toxic and that’s scary as the Browns moved to the centre of the NFL universe on the weekend, completing a slew of trades which lit up social media.

Cleveland completed a series of trades with all arrivals and departures summarised in the tweet below;

 

They added a competent and solid quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, a consistent and productive receiver in Jarvis Landry and a young, talented cornerback (who will play safety) Damarious Randall. All this for a few picks and the above mentioned Kizer, who was shuttled off to Green Bay after one season.

In a vacuum these are decent trades. I like Taylor, he’s a good option as a bridge QB for one year, the length remaining on his contract. Landry’s catching stats are impressive, without being a real deep threat and Randall has 10-interceptions across his three-year career. Three starters for a bunch of draft picks and a quarterback who was never going to start again.

Even the change in direction of improving via trades can be commended. The Browns have cap space and draft picks to burn, so go get better. It beats overspending for mediocre starters in free agency.

However, these trades are the dawn of anything, they don’t mark a change in the Browns’ fortunes, they’re not hurtling in the right direction. They just made a bunch of trades, that’s it.

On cue, the immediate reaction crowd announced Cleveland’s moves as the start of the new generation. General manager John Dorsey the cowboy, throwing his chips around, not afraid to take risks.

Trades are great, but any revolution in Cleveland begins on draft night, where they have two opportunities inside the top four picks to land the quarterback of their dreams. After plenty of misses, this year they must hit. This will be the seminal moment of 2018 for the Browns, not a bunch of trades before free agency opens.

For all the love and hype the Browns have received after recent draft hauls, all they’ve really accomplished is whiffing on grabbing their next franchise quarterback. Trading out of the draft spots used on Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson.

A real new dawn will come from wins on the field and the star college quarterback the Browns pick, hopefully for fans sake at number one, will be the cornerstone of that.

Even this pick will only be the beginning, Cleveland has an achingly long road ahead of rebuilding and future trades will no doubt be a major part of this.

Instant reaction is how the world works in 2018, but save your proclamations of a return to glory at the Dawg Pound for much, much later down the road, hot takes now, mean nothing.

JLT Series Week 1 Musings: The beginning of a competitive pre-season

Port Adelaide’s Dom Barry had an impressive game against the Eagles.

We had our first taste of pre-season football with four games across the country. Thanks to the league’s bizarre fixturing, the first week isn’t even technically over with Carlton to host St. Kilda on Wednesday night at Ikon Park.

However, we got four solid games, a look at both of last year’s Grand Finalists and two of the biggest players in free agency, Essendon and Port Adelaide, unveiled some of their new toys. Enough to make a few assertions from the beginning of the JLT series.

Teams are taking it seriously, meaning better football

The AFL may have lucked out with the addition of the AFLX. Cutting the pre-season down to just two full games has suddenly prompted coaches and teams to give a damn. Two-games appears to be the minimum players need before the home-and-away stuff begins so clubs have loaded up with teams vaguely resembling their best 22. And with better teams on the field, it meant better games. Richmond looked dominant with a near full strength line-up and Adelaide flexed their muscles for a half. It’s no coincidence three of the four favourites won on the opening weekend and even the Power were within a late game collapse of making it a sweep for the favourites.

Essendon and Port Adelaide’s recruiting sprees got off to a slow start

The Bombers and Power loaded up in the off-season and neither teams would have been overly impressed by what their new additions produced. Essendon were blown off the field after the 10-minute mark of the first quarter, right around the time Jake Stringer was sent off with a nasty looking head gash. The enigmatic forward/midfielder returned periodically from then on, finishing with just the nine-disposals. Adam Saad started brightly with a trademark goal, but went in-and-out from that point. Devon Smith was one positive from the day, the former Giant had a strong outing with 26-disposals and one-goal.

It was an even bleaker picture for the Power who unfurled four of their six new experienced recruits, including Jack Watts and Steven Motlop. Watts was serviceable early with a goal, but only finished with nine-disposals. Motlop was barely sighted, finishing with eight-disposals and even more worryingly, headed to the bench late with a calf strain that could require further time off. Throw in Lindsay Thomas’ four-disposals and Jack Trengove’s 11 and the new boys combined for just 32-disposals on the day.

Melbourne’s hype will continue to grow

Richmond’s demolition of Essendon aside, the Dees’ big win over North Melbourne was the highlight of the weekend. Melbourne looked clinical, organised in defence, produced quick transition off half back and had a host of different goalkickers, including highly touted first year player Bayley Fritsch who kicked three. Jake Lever’s ability to free up their better ball users in defence will be so vital and the likes of Michael Hibberd and Jayden Hunt had a field day releasing off half back. It was interesting to note Christian Petracca spent most of the time at half forward as a move into the centre may be on the cards at some point this season.

Draftees show signs

We only got a glimpse of a few top picks from the National Draft, with three first rounders running around for their respective clubs. Of that trio, Andrew Brayshaw was the most impressive for the Dockers. He only finished with the 14-disposals, but went at 89% efficiency and looked really clean, decisive and intelligent. North Melbourne’s Luke Davis-Uniacke found the going a little tougher, but showed enough with 12-disposals, nine by hand and eight being contested. The other was Jack Higgins who played less than half of the match and seems a longshot to debut early this year. Outside of those highly touted recruits, some other youngster to impress included Port’s Dom Barry whose second stint at the top level saw him shine with 20-disposals and a goal. Adelaide’s Lachlan Murphy looked really lively in the forward pocket, kicking three goals and if the Eagle’s Liam Ryan every holds onto one, he’ll take mark of the year at some point in his career.

Muscle Hamster departs Tampa Bay after six frustrating years

Doug Martin was released by the Buccaneers and is now a free agent.

On Wednesday Tampa Bay announced they had released running back Doug Martin after six seasons with the team.

It brings to end one of the strangest tenures of any player at any team.

At his best, Martin was one of the most productive running backs in the league, at his worst he was an injury prone player who battled substance abuse.

In 2015 he finished second in the running title, only behind Adrian Peterson, finishing with 1,402 yards and six-touchdowns. In his rookie year, he ran for 1,454 yards and 11-touchdowns. That saw him become a finalist in the Rookie of the Year award (losing out to Robert Griffin III) and earned him a Pro Bowl trip.

His rookie year also included a career day where he rushed for 251-yards and four-touchdowns against Oakland, becoming only the second player to rush for 250+ yards and four TD’s in NFL history.

In his four other seasons with the Bucs, he failed to rush for more than 500-yards and score more than three-touchdowns. He also never started more than 11-games. It was a frustrating, rollercoaster ride that was always coming to an end this year.

It’s interesting to think about how the former Boise State product will be remembered as a Buccaneer. His two full seasons were so good it always allowed him a little extra leverage from fans and the organisation.

After being drafted in the first round in the 2012 draft, Martin immediately became the team’s starting running back, rushing for 95-yards in his debut against Carolina. He had his first breakout game on Thursday night in Minnesota, rushing for 135-yards and a touchdown and a week later set several franchise records in that game against the Raiders.

He battled through two-injury plagued seasons before his 2015 renaissance and always seemed like a popular player among the team and with supporters.

Despite his inconsistency and injury troubles, Martin earned himself a five-year $35.75 million extension after his successful 2015 season, which included $15 million in guaranteed money. Big coin in the modern NFL where running backs struggle to get paid.

The team also held onto him after his four-game suspension for testing positive to Adderall and his announcement that he would enter a treatment facility. They easily could have cut Martin considering his suspension voided all the guaranteed money he was owed. However, the team kept him for one more year and at the time it seemed like a sensible move.

Now though, the Bucs had little choice but to cut the 29-year old and he finds himself as a free agent for the first time in his career.

He has always been a fun back to watch, short in stature but so hard to bring down, with a quick burst and an ability to find the hole in traffic. A little ball of muscle, making the nickname he earned at college so fitting.

He’s also battled through being stuck on a team constantly mired in mediocrity. Barely sniffing the playoffs and being a member of struggling offences under a carousel of head coaches and offensive coordinators.

It certainly wasn’t coincidental that in Martin’s two best season, the Bucs’ offence as a whole was much more productive. In his rookie year, quarterback Josh Freeman had his best statistical season and 2015 marked the arrival of Jameis Winston who threw for over 4,000. That year Martin and Charles Sims, who may also be released this off-season, formed one of the best running back tandems in the league.

But as has become custom in Tampa over the past decade, his brilliance was always fleeting and fans went into each season “hoping” for the best, not expecting, which is an issue considering Martin was the team’s featured running back.

Martin will find another home and could certainly return to his best in a new environment and if it’s anything like he produced with Tampa Bay, he’ll be a valuable pick-up.

His best was as good as anyone, the Buccaneers just didn’t get to see enough of it.

All aboard the AFL hype train

A strong haul this off season has Port Adelaide the key hype team of 2018.

Pre-season means predictions in the AFL and like every year, not all clubs will be equal. As the build up to the new season grows, so too will the hype around certain teams.

Hype around a team doesn’t mean they’re instantly considered a premiership threat, or even a lock to play finals, just that they will be a team to watch and improve in some capacity this season.

This isn’t even a prediction on whether pundits will be right about these teams, just a list of the five clubs who will be receiving the most buzz come the start of the season.

Brisbane

First up, a pretty easy example to show not all hype means they’re a premiership threat. Last year’s wooden spooners haven’t finished above 12th since 2009, which was also the last year they played finals. They’ve also finished 17th or lower in the past three seasons. The short of it, the only way has to be up for the Lions. Brisbane will be the buzzy pick of last year’s bottom four or five to become more competitive and potentially tip-toe around the top eight for parts of the season. The list is stacked with first-round picks and the hype will build that Chris Fagan has them going in the right direction.

Hawthorn

It would be fair to consider Hawthorn exempt from this list, as there is always media hype around the Hawks. The very idea of Hawthorn doing anything makes the media salivate and with their shock drop to 12th in 2017 means a quick rebound is surely on the cards, especially considering how strongly they ended last year. It’s already begun after James Sicily announced his rise to superstardom with a dominant AFLX performance and with a horde of injured champions ready to return, the hype will be intense come Round 1.

Melbourne

This love will be partly, they came so close and their list looks even stronger so they must improve and partly, please Melbourne for the love of god will you play finals this year?! St. Kilda aside, the Demons are one of the few hard luck stories left in the league and their premiership drought is made even worse by their 11-year finals drought on top of that. Having their hearts ripped out in the final quarter of the home-and-away season will make Melbourne the feel-good story of the year for journalists and add the addition of Jake Lever, the Dees hype will be relentless.

Port Adelaide

The Power shot to the very top of this list as soon as the final bell rang to make the end of last year’s free agency and trade period. Port Adelaide loaded up with Tom Rockliff, Jack Watts and Steven Motlop and post that, Ken Hinkley’s side also added Jack Trengove, Trent McKenzie and Lindsay Thomas. They’ve clearly set themselves for a premiership push and signing big names in free agency earns you instant credibility, for some reason. Port made the jump to 5th last year before their heartbreaking finals exit to West Coast and if pre-season predications will be anything to go by, they’ll be able to go a few steps further this season.

Sydney

The shock horror of Sydney’s 0-6 was followed by the scene we’ve come accustomed to, the Swans tearing through the league and anyone who stood in their way. Still, despite their second half bounce back, their season ended unceremoniously at the hands of the Cats in the semi-final. Considering they were virtually flag favourites from sixth at the beginning of the final series, it won’t be a surprise to see Sydney leading the nominations for premiership favourites this year. Their list is largely the same, but a hardened resolve will more than likely see them avoid their horror start for a second year in a row and the media will be loving it.

AFLX Musings: Take it to grassroots and away from bright lights

Adelaide defeated Geelong by eight-points in Thursday’s “Grand Final”

First off, I get it, AFLX wasn’t created, designed or implemented for passionate, long standing footy fans. As has been the league’s mission throughout the 21st century, the league has two key target groups for this new format, kids and the northern states.

Masters of resting on their laurels and taking their core fanbase for granted, AFLX ignores this group and is built for kids who can’t sit still for longer than five minutes and New South Welshman and Queenslanders who can’t even find an oval ground nearby, let alone would ever visit one for a football game.

Alas though, it was unveiled in Adelaide, at the top level and marked the beginning of the pre-season. So, what were some takeaways from the AFL’s latest wacky creation?

It’s just basketball

End-to-end, players largely congregating around each team’s goalsquares and providing an incentive for taking shots from long range. AFLX was footy merging with basketball, like never before. The real stuff has continually added elements from basketball, but AFLX was essentially basketball with a football and with goal posts instead of baskets.

Lack of any defensive strategy or intensity was zzzzzz

Reminiscent of non-contact drills, the lack of any semblance of a defensive plan from all 18 teams was pretty remarkable. Although slightly understandable considering clubs would have had one, maybe two run throughs at most and they weren’t taking it seriously, most players didn’t even bother to pay attention when their side were without the ball. Tackles were few and far between and while it almost entirely eliminated stoppages, seeing teams just waltz to 40 and bomb long became boring and stale, quickly.

The key gimmick isn’t exciting

Like the six in Big Bash and three’s in basketball, the awkwardly named “Zooper” goal (of course with an attached sponsorship) was a key way to liven things up. 10-points for a goal kicked outside the two 40 mete arcs is reminiscent of the glorious “Supergoal” which lit up the Wizard Cup all those years back. Smoke and fireworks following the booming goal from distance. The main problem? No one at AFL level is unable to kick a goal from 40 metres out, so they happen all the time. On Thursday, Fremantle and Geelong went back and forth kicking zooper goals and they quickly lost their lustre. It has to be a proper achievement to nail a zooper goal and at the rate they were occurring, it isn’t at all.

It served little purpose for the clubs

The teams were almost exclusively filled with first year players & rookies and few teams bothered to send the maximum number of players on their respective flights over. As the format is so unique, it was fairly fruitless gauging how the new draftees handled their first taste of something resembling AFL action. There weren’t any strategical breakthroughs coaches can bring to the real stuff and the games were so short, the level of running will most likely be matched in training across the next week. Nothing really to take away or build on for anyone involved at club level.

I’m not sure if the AFL achieved its objectives, crowds were solid, despite the lack of interest from clubs. AFLX could most definitely work at grassroots level, which would be the aim for the league. But to use the beginning of pre-season to present it to the masses? Let’s just start the JLT Community Series.