We have reached peak Robbo

Few, if anyone, could have predicted the remarkable transformation of the Richmond Football Club in 2017 under coach Damien Hardwick.

There is good reason for that, seeing as the last time we saw the Tigers in 2016, they were suffering an embarrassing 113-point loss against Sydney at the SCG. They seemed as far away from a Grand Final as any team in the league, only clairvoyants and the most optimistic Tigers supporters could have sensed this turnaround.

Hardwick loomed as the key scapegoat if Richmond didn’t improve on their eight-win total. Herald Sun Chief Football Writer Mark Robinson made this prediction at the beginning of the year;

It wasn’t an awful prediction, Hardwick had barely survived an extensive club review at the end of the 2016 season and even with the additions of Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy, the coach entered his eighth year on thin ice and a slow start could definitely have seen him fired by mid-season.

It’s easy to pick on Robbo, his prediction just happened to appear across Twitter today, you can guess there’s other predictions on Richmond along those lines from so-called experts either on record or not. So, who saw the revival coming, anyone?

There was one man who foresaw the return of the Tigers to September and the Grand Final, one journalist brave enough to stand by Hardwick and back him in to turn his coaching career and Richmond’s fortune around. That journalist was the same man who had Hardwick sacked by mid-year, Mark Robinson.

Back in April last year, a full 17-months ago when all of the AFL world had given up on Richmond and Hardwick, Robinson put all his chips into the middle of the table and backed Hardwick in. The Tigers had started 1-5, the coach and the club were done, yet Robbo still believed.

Now you may be asking why an old article from April, 2016 is relevant now. So much has changed since then, particularly Mark Robinson’s opinion of the Grand Final coach, Damien Hardwick. Well, in the middle of Grand Final week, as the yellow and black army ready themselves to descend on the MCG this Saturday for this first time since 1982, someone wanted to remind the football public of his prediction, why it was Robbo himself of course.

That’s why an article written an eternity ago appeared on the front page of the Superfooty website and was splashed across Twitter timelines.

Mark Robinson has had many golden moments of self-aggrandising. He’s had beers with almost every premiership player in AFL history, has AFL CEO Gillon McLachlan on speed dial, was apparently thanked by Jordan Lewis’ mother for helping him win three of his four premierships and was the moral conscious after Leigh Montagna was suspended during the season.

This latest stunt has to take the cake, not only to even remember he had even written the article, not only to feel it necessary to remind everyone, not only to ignore how he swung the other way a year later, no, it’s none of that, it’s the finer details.

Putting his own name in the headline proclaiming his support of Hardwick, the fact that at first glance it seems as if he has written a fresh article discussing his own past article and the coup de gras, this delicious intro;

“RICHMOND was in a world of pain in April last season, but when Mark Robinson assessed the Tigers he came to a surprising conclusion. Read the column here.”

The analysis of a football savant, right there.

If Robbo wasn’t so devoid of irony and the least self-aware person on the planet, you could have assumed he was doing it for a laugh, or thinking cynically, just doing it as clickbait to get fans riled up, and sure enough there were plenty reminding him of his backflip.

Yet nothing Robbo does has any deeper meaning, it’s all right there on the surface, he believes everything he says without a hint of modesty or sarcasm.

So, when Richmond enter the coliseum of the MCG this Saturday, remember, one man saw it coming the whole time.

2017 NFL Free Agency Day One Musings

Cleveland came to Houston’s rescue and traded for Brock Osweiler, “buying” a second-round pick.

Surely somewhere deep inside their Park Avenue headquarters, the NFL thanks their lucky stars they have the Cleveland Browns and curse the day they let the first incarnation of this treasured franchise to leave for Baltimore. The Browns were the worst team in 2016, yet are one of the best at creating headlines

The opening day of the 2017 NFL Free Agency period and the start of the New Year in the league already steals the sporting headlines, however the Browns added the biggest storyline which sent Twitter and the NFL world into meltdown.

Brock Osweiler, the $72 million mistake in Houston, was traded to Cleveland on the eve of the new NFL year and league Twitter initially destroyed the Browns, understandably, and then suddenly began praising Paul DePodesta and the front office for the innovative deal which sent Osweiler and a second-round pick from the Texans to the Browns for a 4th and a 6th round pick in the upcoming draft.

The deal has now been labelled as “creative” and considered a win-win for both franchises as Cleveland essentially paid $18 million for a second-round pick. The deal does make sense for both teams, but it’s hardly a game-changer.

Rich Smith looks like a magician, having now washed his hands clean of the disaster that was signing Osweiler to the monster deal last off-season, however the team is still without a capable starting quarterback and sound out of the race for Tony Romo who looks destined to end up in Denver.

The Browns get another second rounder this year to make it 22 picks across the next two drafts. It means another dart to throw at the dartboard and knowing Cleveland’s history, there’s no guarantee they nail the pick, or any pick for that matter.

The caveat is if they can pull off a trade, which has to be the strategy, however their main target doesn’t seem available for any price. Jimmy Garoppolo is unlikely to be traded, no matter what Cleveland offers.

The main question and where Cleveland could have improved the deal would have been whether they could have squeezed more out of Houston to help free up the cap space Osweiler was stealing next season. But, nevertheless the deal is done and the Browns livened up free agency once again.

The trade kicked off the new NFL year; however the action began well before 8am AEST time and now on to other matters, from a typically jam-packed opening day of free agency.

Jags gonna jag

Jacksonville goes all out to spend as much money as possible on beefing up their defence. Nope, it’s not 2016, or 2015, or 2014. The Jaguars have broken the bank once again, splashing the cash on a number of high profile defensive free agents. They began by handing Calais Campbell a massive $14 million per year deal to beef up an already loaded, money-wise, defensive line and then grabbed free agency darling A.J. Bouye from their division rivals for $67.5 million over five-years and Barry Church from Dallas to add starters in their secondary. At some point all this spending will generate some wins for the struggling AFC South outfit.

Washington are imploding, which is not like them

The off-season drama at Redskins Park is just as crazy as usual with an exodus of team members, both on and off the field.

Having already lost one wide receiver in Pierre Garcon to San Francisco, DeSean Jackson will line up across from Mike Evans in Tampa Bay, as he accepted a $35-million deal over three-years. Defensive tackle Chris Baker joined the speedy wide receiver in moving south to Tampa and their quarterback drama continued to roll on as Kirk Cousins continued rumblings of his desire to move to San Fran.

Lastly, the saga of Scot McCloughan finally came to an end in Landover as he was officially fired having already been driven out of the building by a toxic front office which even went and tarnished his reputation on the way out.

Oh, at least they did re-sign Jay Gruden for two more years.

NFC West contrasts

There were a lot of comings and goings in a division which struggled overall in 2016, with Arizona and San Francisco leading the news.

The Cardinals lost a host of defensive starters with Campbell being joined by safety pair Tony Jefferson and D.J. Swearinger who left for Baltimore and Washington respectively. They are also poised to lose linebacker Kevin Minter, although did acquire safety Antoine Bethea from the Niners and had already re-signed pass rusher Chandler Jones for five more seasons.

San Francisco was the opposite and has thrown money around to simply add capable starters. Including their own re-signings, the 49ers have added 12 players, with some costing a fortune. They can pair newly added Garcon with Aldrick Robinson to provide some weapons for whichever former Chicago quarterbacks starts, with Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley both moving to Santa Clara.

The Niners have also added linebacker Malcolm Smith, defensive tackle Earl Mitchell, tight end Logan Paulsen and full back Kyle Juszczyk, who becomes the ninth highest paid rusher in the league, receiving $21-million over four-years.

Mike Glennon gets paid and Chicago fans hold their breath

No news on Romo or Garoppolo on day one, however the next big name on the quarterback off-season list found a new home. The Buccaneers back-up has found his starting job with the Bears and got a massive payday to go with his promotion, a three-year deal at an average of $14.5 million. It’s no doubt a massive gamble to throw starting QB money to a guy who hasn’t started a game since 2014, but Glennon has at least shown some signs.

The big issue facing the Bears and Glennon is their lack of receivers and the loss of Alshon Jeffery, who signed a one-year deal worth $14 million in Philadelphia, won’t help that. They did add former Pittsburgh wideout Markus Wheaton and tight end Dion Sims from Miami, but it’s not exactly an imposing receiver group and Glennon isn’t going to play at a decent level without the talent around him.

Other titbits

– Safety Micah Hyde left Green Bay for Buffalo and looms a decent signing for a team which also lost cornerback Stephon Gilmore to New England.

– Speaking of New England, your candidate for departing Patriot who re-joins the team before the end of the deal he just signed is Logan Ryan. The depth cornerback signed a massive $30 million deal over three-years with Tennessee and will be back under Bill Belichick by 2019, for half the cost.

– Typically quiet running back market with Seattle providing the main news as they sniff around both Eddie Lacy and Jamaal Charles. All quiet on the Adrian Peterson front, the same for Latavius Murray and LeGarrette Blount.

Jay Cutler was released by Chicago, finally.

Taking a ride on the QB carousel

Both Kirk Cousins and Tyrod Taylor could have new homes in 2017.

Anyone familiar with Face Off, the 1997 insane action thriller starring a bonkers Nicholas Cage and even more bonkers John Travolta would know the dangers of carousels.

Slight spoilers if you haven’t seen it by now. In the opening scene of the movie, Travolta is enjoying a carousel ride with his young son, when Cage arrives with his sniper rifle and guns down the small boy with the bullet passing through Travolta on the way.

Now a scenario like this is unlikely, however carousels are still dangerous, especially in the NFL where quarterback carousels can spin around and around, for some teams across multiple decades.

It isn’t hard to glean from the 2016 season alone that there is a sever dearth of QB talent in the league. From the 32 teams, there’s maybe 10 absolute franchise quarterbacks and maybe eight or so more who can reach that level or are at least adequate.

There’s also a large chunk of teams stuck in an endless circle, either without a competent quarterback or without a QB at all (San Francisco).

Two teams which sit somewhere in the middle are Washington and Buffalo. Kirk Cousins and Tyrod Taylor are around the same level of quarterback. For the Redskins, Cousins has already led the team to the playoffs and demonstrated a clear ability to be a solid starter, capable of playing at, or near a Pro Bowl level.

In Buffalo, Taylor may not be as accomplished a passer as Cousins, however has the athletic traits to compliment a decent arm and solid playmaking ability.

Neither of these guys loom as potential top-10 passers, however with enough around them, they could lead their respective franchises on playoff runs and, if the cards fell the right way, even to a Championship Game or a Super Bowl. The main point being, there are worse options available.

And yet both teams are refusing to lock up their starting quarterbacks and one seems increasingly likely to leave the team this off season.

For the second straight year, Washington has chosen to snap the franchise tag on Cousins. This is the first-time multiple franchise tags have been used on a quarterback in successive years and strongly indicates the Skins’ reluctance to lock up Cousins for the long-term.

Cousins threw for a career-best 4.917-yards in 2016, adding 25-touchdowns and 12-interceptions. These numbers took his past two-season total to over 9,000-yards and 54-touchdowns. Those are quality figures and although the team struggled down the stretch and missed the playoffs, Cousins played at a consistent level.

Jay Gruden has publicly sung the praises of his 27-year old passer and Cousins fared favourably on Football Outsiders rankings, finishing fifth in DVOA. Yet no long-term deal, for the second season in a row.

Now the major barrier you would assume keeping Dan Snyder from handing out a big deal to Cousins is the required pay packet it will take. Under the franchise tag, he’ll earn around $24 million and any long-term deal would average out to over $20 million at a minimum. That’s par for the course for quarterbacks in the 2017 market.

For a second, ignore all the reasons why Washington should not pay up for Cousins and consider this, what superior options do they have?

The reason there is a lack of QB talent in the NFL is because there aren’t many good quarterbacks. Just a look at the free agency market shows pickings are slim and the only even competent signal caller who will join the market shortly is Tony Romo, who is 37 in April and is one injury away from having his bones disintegrate.

Going with Kirk Cousins is Washington’s only logical solution for next season and the seasons beyond that, it’s the logical solution for any length of time that would be covered in a long-term deal. There aren’t any better options out there.

Which brings it back to the Bills. They’ve gone even further than Washington and with a new coach in charge could move on from Taylor this very off-season.

Buffalo’s quarterback of the past two seasons was surprisingly benched for EJ Manuel of all people in Week 17 and Sean McDermott hasn’t exactly been enamoured with the dual threat playmaker since he arrived at Orchard Park from Carolina.

Taylor is a clear level or two below Cousins, however has been a consistently solid starter since 2015. He’s thrown only a combined 12-interceptions in two season, compared to 37-touchdowns and also added 10-touchdowns on the ground and over 1,000 rushing yards. He’s done all this with fairly mediocre receiver talent and an offensive group often wrecked by injuries.

He must have surely exceeded Bills expectations since arriving from Baltimore where he was a career back-up. Yet the stats barely bought him any loyalty under Rex Ryan and those feelings have translated to a new coaching staff.

It’s hard to imagine what both Buffalo and Washington envision as they plan their quarterback rotation for 2017. Where is this next incarnation of Aaron Rodgers waiting in the draft or in free agency?

This year’s draft class sounds particularly mediocre and despite the annual Combine buzz driving the likes of Mitch Trubisky, Deshaun Watson and Deshaun Kizer up the draft board, all will be huge gambles and nothing suggests they can be 2017’s Dak Prescott.

Make no mistake, both players have flaws and ceilings, but even if their peaks aren’t at a truly dominant and transcendent level, teams can compete with decent quarterback play and Denver won a Super Bowl with Peyton Manning’s noodle arm leading their offence.

Teams never seem to be content with what they have and obviously win-losses force decisions and neither Buffalo or Washington made the playoffs in 2016. However, both teams have bigger issues than at quarterback and if they’re not careful they’ll be like 15 other franchises, going around in circles.

A moustachioed Nicholas Cage won’t be eying them off through the scope of his sniper rifle, but both the Redskins and the Bills need to tread carefully and avoid the spinning horses.

Geelong cannot rush the re-signing of Chris Scott

Chris Scott’s current contract comes to an end after 2017.

Most Geelong fans would have felt sense of dread on preliminary night in 2016 when the sole inclusion to the team Lachie Henderson, who was coming off a three-week layoff with injury, started forward.

Sure enough, Sydney embarrassed the Cats with a 10-minute onslaught of physical pressure and precision disposal which Geelong couldn’t match and by quarter time the game was over.

Maybe the extent of the mismatch was surprising, but Geelong fans have come to expect finals failures under Chris Scott, particularly early in finals where the Cats never seem to be prepared for the intensity and the pressure of a massive contest.

For all of Geelong’s home and away success under Scott, their finals record is poor, after 2011 very poor. The Cats have played finals four times since 2011 for two-wins and six-losses. This record creates a quandary for Brian Cook and the Geelong board with the end of Scott’s current contract approaching.

With a year to go on his contract, Scott signed a two-year extension in 2014 and that deal expires at the end of this season. There have already been rumblings that an extension is in the works and may even come before the 2017 season begins. Geelong doesn’t have to look too far back in AFL history to see what a mistake that could be.

Richmond, Fremantle and Brisbane all jumped the gun prior to the 2016 season, extending Damien Hardwick, Ross Lyon and Justin Leppitsch for multiple years beyond 2017. All three decisions proved to be disastrous as both the Dockers and the Tigers tumbled out of the finals and the Lions finished last, sacking Leppitsch in the process.

And if you think Geelong are different to those situations, there are a lot of similarities between Fremantle of 2016 and the Geelong of this year. Falling out of the top four is a real possibility and it wouldn’t be shocking if they missed the top eight entirely.

Aside from not being prepared for the contest or Sydney’s pressure and some questionable coaching decisions, the Cats major downfall on preliminary final night was a complete lack of midfield depth which was shown up against the league’s best midfields.

To combat the likes of Luke Parker, Daniel Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, Tom Mitchell and Kieren Jack, Geelong had Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield and very little else, an issue which plagued them at various times throughout last season. It was fitting that the pair both collected 39-dispoals, with the next best Cats players in terms of disposals being Jimmy Bartel and Corey Enright who both collected 26-disposals and who also both retired.

Alarmingly they haven’t addressed the gaping divide between Dangerwood and the rest of the midfield and if anything, the gap has become bigger. Aside from a few standouts performances from Cam Guthrie, Josh Caddy was the side’s third best midfielder yet was valued below Scott Selwood and Sam Menegola and was shipped off for peanuts to the Tigers.

Steven Motlop bore the brunt of the criticism for the rest of Geelong’s midfield, however for someone who arrived out of shape in preseason; his numbers were strong and like Guthrie produced some best-on-ground displays. There were others who produced less than Motlop

Ultimately this lack of midfield depth comes back to development and to a certain degree drafting which just hasn’t been a priority for Geelong as free agency and trading has become the club’s primary source of list building.

Development falls on the coach and a look back at Geelong’s draft strikerate under Scott isn’t very impressive. The Cats have participated in six National Drafts since Scott took over from Mark Thompson and development of in-house players has been a problem.

They’ve only had three first round picks under Scott, which is a problem in itself, but none of the three players are club standouts. Jackson Thurlow has shown the most of the trio and is primed for a big bounce back season after missing 2016 with a torn ACL in the NAB Challenge. Nakia Cockatoo and Darcy Lang are the other two first-rounders and both remain on the fringes of Geelong’s best team and neither played in the preliminary final debacle against Sydney.

Joel Hamling was their first pick in the 2011 draft and never played a game, Jarrad Jansen was a second-round pick who also never played a game and few others are even still on the list.

Mix that with the stagnation of Mitch Duncan, George Horlin-Smith, Jordan Murdoch who are still with the team and Shane Kersten and Billie Smedts who have moved on and it creates a big gulf of talent which hasn’t been replaced from the premiership years.

To counter, Geelong has turned to the trade table, which is always a gamble. From the side who took on Hawthorn last Friday in Launceston, six were traded from others clubs and that doesn’t include Scott Selwood and all of these were recruited in their prime and haven’t been developed by Scott or Geelong.

Taking all those reasons and shoving them aside for the moment, there’s one bigger reason to wait on an extension, it’s simply okay to wait.

Richmond jumping the gun on Hardwick’s extension highlighted a club’s fearfulness of losing a coach driven by media hysteria. There was no need to re-sign Hardwick prior to the season and there’s no need to re-sign Scott now.

Another finals collapse or even worse, a drop out of finals, would be an embarrassment if they had already extended Scott. Hold your cards, play the season out and make an informed decision at the end of the year, because Geelong may have already peaked under their current coach.

Super Bowl Redo: Why universe, why?

The strip sack which turned the game in the Patriots favour.

The night before the Super Bowl, I was flicking through my Foxtel IQ looking for the 2014 New England-Seattle Super Bowl to have a quick re-watch before Monday. Before I got there, I found the 2014 NFC Championship game between Green Bay and Seattle.

Compelled to re-watch the final quarter and overtime, it’s easy to forget what a remarkable game that was. How many ridiculous things went Seattle’s way and the excruciatingly brutal loss suffered by the Packers. Who would have thought the next day we’d see a collapse that tops Green Bay’s capitulation? And then some.

Atlanta’s 25-point blown lead and eventual loss in overtime is without compare in terms of NFL chokejobs and it’s hard to come up with a collapse from another sport more brutal without thorough research. My yardstick in the AFL, not by margin or magnitude, but in shock value, is North Melbourne’s collapse against Adelaide in Round 9, 2013. The Kangaroos led by 30-points with less than ten minutes to go on the Channel Seven countdown clock and were pipped on the line by a point after Jared Petrenko kicked the winning goal with 20-seconds to play. That was mid-season in a largely meaningless Sunday afternoon game at Etihad Stadium; this was the freaking Super Bowl.

For every Atlanta fan, and any sane NFL fans who despise everything about the Patriots, the final 20 minutes on Monday felt like death by 1,000 cuts. A long, slow and painful piece of torture while the 28-3 advantage was slowly whittled away as Tom Brady stood with consummate ease in the pocket and carved through the Falcon’s secondary like a knife cutting through butter. What made it so painful is that everyone could see it coming and yet you just sat there helpless. Every supporter of good around the world and even Atlanta’s own coaching staff and players were powerless to stop the onslaught.

There were four key plays which I will remember from the rollercoaster of emotions everyone experienced in the four engrossing hours. From a growing sense of joy to utter despair.

Robert Alford pick-six (Starting to believe)

Despite Atlanta establishing a quick 14-0 second quarter lead, behind a dynamic and efficient offence which had the Patriots defence scrambling, there was a feeling at any point that Belichick would kick the offence into gear and respond. When Brady dropped back on 3rd and 6 with pressure in his face and missed the roaming Alford who picked off his wobbly pass and walked into the endzone, there was a genuine feeling that the Falcons were going to pull it off.

Julian Edelman’s pass attempt which lofted incomplete (Good has prevailed over evil)

Not only does Belichick and Brady have an extensive trick bag, their tricks always seem to work. Edelman hitting a deep touchdown in the divisional round against Baltimore in 2014 has always stood out as an example of the slices of luck which always seem to go New England’s way. When Belichick turned to his wide receiver’s arm once again, it went over the head of the outstretched Dion Lewis. It should have been the sign that luck wasn’t going to be on the Patriots’ side, even if they converted a fourth-down pass on the next play.

Donta Hightower’s strip sack fumble on Matt Ryan (The game’s turning)

New England had drawn within 16-points and theoretically, with multiple two-conversions, made it a two-score game, however it wasn’t quite panic stations yet. When Hightower had a free rush on Ryan thanks to Devonta Freeman blowing a blocking assignment, alarm bells began to ring. The Pats recovering the fumble sparked a turning point, Atlanta was going to have to fight desperately to hold on.

Trey Flowers’ sack on Matt Ryan, knocking Atlanta out of field goal range (No! Whyyyyyy?!)

Julio Jones had his David Tyree moment, a spectacular catch in a clutch moment to sink New England in a Super Bowl. Before getting to the tragic aftermath, the more you watch the initial Ryan scramble & perfectly placed throw and the incredible piece of athletic brilliance from Julio Jones, the better the catch looks. On Ryan’s part, there were few spots he could have thrown that ball without it being intercepted by Eric Rowe and that he lofted it high enough to clear Rowe was an achievement in itself. But Julio defied gravity and all logic in coming down with that ball. Of course, despite having the Super Bowl won with a field goal, Ryan was sacked by Flowers with the drive somehow ending in a punt. As soon as Matt Bosher was called upon, the game was going to come down to a two-point conversion because Atlanta weren’t stopping New England on the next drive.

Four moments painting a picture of a journey from ecstasy to tragedy. To be clear, I don’t like the Falcons, sure they aren’t as hated as Carolina or New Orleans, but they are still a division rival. However, even I’m heartbroken by what happened. How do you come back from that? How do Falcons fans get through the next month? How do they trudge through the off season? How do they return next year?

It is surely a loss that will rock the core of the franchise and serious questions can be asked on the toll the loss will take on Atlanta next season. They were already due to take a massive hit with the loss of Kyle Shanahan, who inexplicably has become somewhat of a villain. While many would have been screaming at the TV when Ryan went down after Jones’ catch, infuriated that Atlanta simply weren’t running the ball to guarantee a makeable field goal and drain the clock, Shanahan was still one of the key architects to the Falcons impressive season and if anything, the criticism against him has become a little overblown.

Without Shanahan, Ryan must prove his ability to play at an MVP level with newly appointed offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, although keep in mind that all the pieces will remain. With all of Brady’s dominance due to a tired and impotent Atlanta pass rush, it can’t be forgotten that the Falcons offence only managed 21-points for the game and crucially failed to sustain drives throughout the second half, with four of their drives resulting in three-and-outs. More staggeringly, after building the 28-3 advantage, the team only ran 12-more plays for the game. This obviously due to New England’s dominance in time of possession, but Atlanta had their moments and with their consistency on offence all year, their inability to score at least another field goal or even drain the clock was extremely deflating.

The defence played almost the perfect first half. Alone they outscored the Patriots 7-3, but did so much more. They forced constant pressure on Brady, leading to inaccurate throws and the vital pick six. Their young and speedy linebackers swarmed the field and they stifled a running game which loomed as a decisive advantage for New England pre-game. The one downside, which proved instrumental, was that they may have played too well, they forced turnovers and scored too quickly, Atlanta simply never had the ball.

It was a horror show in the last quarter and overtime, they were cooked, the pass rush disappeared and Brady got into an unstoppable groove. Even worse, when they had the few opportunities to force turnovers or make a stop, they could never quite complete the job. Vic Beasley nearly sacked Brady in his own endzone, they allowed a fourth down conversion previously mentioned and what seemed to be the final nail, Edelman signature catch was kept off the ground by Alford’s ankle.

Once the coin toss fell as heads gifting possession to the Pats in overtime, the Super Bowl was over, Atlanta must have smelt defeat and on cue New England strolled down the field and James White of all people capped off his signature day with his third touchdown, there’s just no such thing as karma.

In the immediate aftermath and in the ensuing days, a similarity between that NFC Championship in Seattle and this past Super Bowl has emerged, like for Green Bay, Atlanta needed just one more stop for the rest of the game, just one more score, just one thing to go there way and it never did. While the moments weren’t as crystal clear as Seattle’s successful onside kick or their incredible two-point conversion, the Falcons needed just one more moment to go their way and they would have been Super Bowl champions.

Facing a 25-point deficit midway through the third quarter of the Super Bowl, a team needs everything to go right, there is zero room for error; they need to make every important play. New England did all that, everything went right.

At our Super Bowl event, we were waiting for that one final moment which would end the Patriots charge and we could all celebrate an Atlanta victory. Unfortunately for us, the city of Atlanta and Falcons fans all over the world, it never happened.

Roughead fairy tale born out of necessity

Jarryd Roughead’s return to footy was capped off by being named Hawthorn captain.

It was the feel good AFL story of the summer when Hawthorn announced that Jarryd Roughead, fresh off beating skin cancer, would take over from Luke Hodge as the club’s 36th captain.

From his public announcement that his dreaded cancer had returned and spread in the middle of last year, it was longshot that key forward would ever play again. However, since he joyfully returned to full health, his chances of returning to the Hawks side have become shorter and last week’s announcement certainly confirmed that.

Although it’s great news that Roughead will now captain Hawthorn, the news was somewhat surprising, considering he is still yet to return to the field for a senior game and hasn’t played a single game since the 2015 Grand Final.

Roughead is clearly well loved around the league and Is seemingly on the road to full strength and a return to the field, but it would have made sense for an alternative to be found, at least until the big man had played a decent year of footy in 2017.

The problem the Hawks have and where Roughead’s appointment makes sense is the genuine lack of alternative options.

There is a clear changing of the guard going on at Waverley Park as the premiership era draws towards a close. Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis were both traded in shock deals during the Trade Period, Hodge probably only has a year left, Shaun Burgoyne and Josh Gibson weren’t realistic choices again because of age and Cyril Rioli hasn’t shown any sort of leadership potential throughout his career.

So, the old guard have either moved on or are close to retirement, meaning the Hawks had to look at the mid-tier players, aged in the 24-28 range. Isaac Smith and Liam Shiels were to only two notable candidates around that mark and both must have been in the race as they were awarded vice-captaincy positions beneath Roughead.

The issue with Smith and Shiels is they certainly don’t scream leadership and haven’t had to take on any major roles since being drafted because of that older and more seasoned group leading the way throughout their careers.

This lack of quality leadership options in the “prime” of their careers has been born out of an even bigger issue at Hawthorn, their lack of any quality players in around that age bracket, hence why their Trade Period saga with Gold Coast for Jaeger O’Meara was so drawn out and protracted.

The fairly obvious reason for this dearth of talent is Hawthorn run of recent success which means they either haven’t had draft picks or haven’t prioritised the draft in their list build. Any club would love to not have to worry about the draft, however this is the reality for the Hawks now.

It’s why for the first time since around 2010, Hawthorn aren’t at the top of the list of premiership contenders and an argument can even be made that they are in danger of missing finals for the first time since 2010.

Roughead’s return was going to provide an emotional lift regardless of his standing in the team, but now as captain, the fan favourite will lead a Hawks side, battling father time in an attempt to extend their premiership run.

The Rodgers clock is ticking

Green Bay proved no match for Atlanta, losing 44-21.

On the surface, the NFC Championship game loomed as a battle between two powerful offences and a pair of fairly mediocre defences.

Digging deeper and it became apparent that Atlanta and Green Bay was a match between an almost historic offence against an historic quarterback and an average defence against something turning into a trainwreck.

If Green Bay was going to stand any chance in the Georgia Dome, it was going to require another miracle effort from Rodgers and having produced countless miracle efforts down the stretch and into the playoffs, the magic couldn’t have lasted forever.

Rodgers was fine yesterday, he just wasn’t incredible and against a Falcons powerhouse, Green Bay looked overmatched and out of their depth, bringing back memories from the first half of this season and the 2015 season, where without hall of fame play from Rodgers, the Packers drifted around the edges of the playoffs.

Outside of the quarterback position, Green Bay are an incomplete team, severely lacking the talent on defence to be a true Super Bowl contender. For the fifth time in six years, the Packers reached the divisional round or further without reaching the Super Bowl. This clearly suggests they have major deficiencies which show up every January.

Top of that list is clearly Green Bay’s defence and defensive coordinator Dom Capers was in the gun again yesterday from fans and pundits. Capers has overseen the Packers defence since 2009 and every year it seems to battle.

In fairness to Capers for the NFC title game, the secondary was already ravaged by injury and the loss of Micah Hyde, an important utility piece who played multiple positions in the secondary, was the final nail in coffin. There was already no Sam Shields.

Ladarius Gunter, an undrafted free agent in his rookie season, was already playing a larger role than previously envisioned and above his current ability. Man-on-man coverage against Julio Jones was always going to be a slaughter and Jones’ 180-yards and two-touchdowns failed to invalidate any predictions.

Outside of the hospital ward secondary, Green Bay’s front seven is aging and lacks any playmakers. Their pass rush failed to put any indent on Atlanta’s offensive machine, Clay Matthews has been non-existent all playoffs and Julius Peppers is reaching the end of the road.

It wasn’t a fair fight and the Falcons had their way all game, marching up and down the field via a variety of receiving threats and the combination of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the backfield.

Atlanta displayed a truly great offence reaching peak performance and pre-game assumptions that Green Bay were a match proved to be unfounded.

Mason Crosby’s missed field goal on their opening drive was an ominous start and an Aaron Ripkowski fumble in the redzone on the next drive meant alarm bells were ringing, the Packers did not have the capability to reel in a two-score deficit, not against this Falcons team and by half time the game was over.

With Green Bay forced to play catch-up, it highlighted issues on offence that were simply masked in their playoff run by number 12. Their running game was non-existent and a one-dimensional offence took away any mystery, allowing the Falcons to zero-in on the passing game.

Eddie Lacy will return from injury next season, however his inconsistencies throughout his career brings in to question the level of improvement they can expect from Lacy over Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael.

Focusing on the passing game, Rodgers is constantly lauded for his ability to make any receiver great, which while a compliment for the QB, questions the ability of each receivers. Without Jordy Nelson last season, the Packers offence lacked speed and the ability to separate and these issues still remain. Rodgers ability to throw receivers open is unparalleled but it’s not sustainable. Those wild improvised plays are incredible, but Green Bay need to operate in a standard offence.

For all of Rodgers’ greatness, the era in Green Bay still only has one Super Bowl and a litany of heartbreak playoff losses. Their defence has been a constant battle throughout this entire period and the 2016 effort shows it still requires some extensive remodelling.

Surviving off ridiculousness from Aaron Rodgers is fun and exciting, but it cannot create legitimate playoff runs. He needs help, right now, while the magic is still there.

Kansas City’s regular season dominance means little without playoff success

Alex Smith led the Chiefs to another early playoff exist against Pittsburgh.

If you had compiled a list of all the factors that would lead to a Kansas City loss on Monday, most would have been ticked off.

An inability to stop Le’Veon Bell, an anaemic offence, the limitations of Alex Smith and of course, good old Andy Reid playoff clock management.

The two-point loss to Pittsburgh is another gut punch for an organisation which is starving for playoff success and an awful contrast to the regular season form of a franchise often considered underrated with the ability to rip off wins in the regular season.

The Chiefs are 23-9 over the past two regular seasons, winning a division title and making two trips to the playoffs. The net result of this supremacy? A single playoff win, over Brian Hoyer and a Houston side which fell apart at home.

On the surface and in the box score, you see a side which didn’t give up a touchdown, scoring two of their own, yet losing due to a playoff record six-field goals from Chris Boswell. There was also more unwanted history by becoming the first team to score two more touchdowns than their opponents and lose in the playoffs.

However, looking deeper, the loss is far more brutal. Kansas City left a litany of yards out on the field, wasted scoring chances and made some critical mistakes at important times which saw them knocked out again in a game where they were outplayed, yet was still very winnable.

Defensively the Chiefs followed their “bend but don’t break” mantra, allowing yards while still becoming incredible stingy in the redzone and despite a feeling that the Steelers always had the upper hand, they still never scored a touchdown.

Through the air they largely kept Ben Roethlisberger in check, even if they couldn’t force consistent pressure up front, limiting Big Ben to 224-yards and stymying Brown’s influence after a 52-yard bomb in the first quarter, while covered by Justin Houston, keeping him to 56-yards for the rest of the game and importantly keeping him out of the endzone.

The Chiefs lost the game on offence and Smith was one of the main culprits. There’s a clear ceiling on having Smith at quarterback, somewhere between the heights of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady and the dregs of your Jay Cutler and Ryan Fitzpatrick and every so often you see his limitations.

For all the hype of Kansas offensive playmakers, it’s really two players and the Steelers made it their mission to limit the impact of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

Hill had little influence on offence, minus drawing the attention of linebackers to open up space for teammates. He didn’t have a single punt return and there were no vintage kick returns to light up Arrowhead Stadium. Kelce disappeared after the first quarter and had two brain fades, the first a 15-yard penalty on a ridiculous unnecessary roughness call and after the game, abusing the refs for calling Eric Fisher’s obvious hold. He always dropped a catchable touchdown pass, all combining for an ugly night from their star tight end.

Outside of that, they didn’t get enough from their run game, rushing for a total of 61-yards and Jeremy Maclin was the second-best receiver with 28-yards, although some of that is on Smith. Even the idea that your most explosive offensive players are a tight end and a return specialist, suggests you lack playmakers in key positions.

Back to Smith, he had a massive chance to score earlier on the final touchdown drive as he missed Maclin on a deep ball in the redzone, throwing to the wrong side, stopping a certain touchdown for the wideout and he also missed Hill when the speedy receiver had burned the Steelers secondary, only to see Smith scramble out of a clean pocket.

For all the effort from the Chiefs defence to keep it tight, it felt like a one-sided game and there was never a feeling that Smith was going to rise another level to legitimately make it a contest.

An event much more of a certainty than a Smith-led comeback was Reid’s famous playoff clock management rearing its ugly head again and of course it did on an eight-minute touchdown drive in the final quarter which left them almost no time to get the ball back after their failed two-point attempt.

The slow pace was made worse by stupidly wasting a timeout before a key fourth down play, when surely you would have two plays lined up on third down in case you didn’t initially convert.

The Chiefs’ march through the regular season under Andy Reid is often ignored, but they show a level of consistency and ability to just pull out close games which few teams can match. However, it all goes away in January, leaving opportunity and reason for Kansas City to be ignored.

And for all the hype of Arrowhead being a fortress rivalling even that of Seattle, the Chiefs have staggeringly won just two-playoff games at home since 1970. Two! They are also 0-4 when going into the playoffs as the number one seed.

Those stats obviously aren’t all to do with the current Andy Reid-led team; however, it does highlight an offseason ineptitude which continues to plague the AFC West side.

So now the inevitable questioning must commence about how far Kansas can go under the current regime and what does stability mean early in the year when it generates little at the end.

The league may not notice Kansas City’s consistency from September to December, but there’s no shying away from what continues to happen in January.

Divisional Round Preview: At least make it a challenge

Houston were shutout in New England in the regular season, a repeat of that is on the cards.

If there was one upside from a fairly mediocre wildcard weekend, aside from Aaron Rodgers’ domination and a second week of “Boatgate”, it was that only eight of the best teams remain, setting up a mouth-watering (or as Ray Lewis likes to say, “mouth got water”) divisional round featuring three dream match-ups.

On the NFC side of the playoff bracket, you could mix up the four remaining combatants in any combination and only get great games. Seattle didn’t really exceed expectations in their 26-6 win over Detroit, however at least they are peaking and the hint of a dangerous running game led by Thomas Rawls and a defence which is still formidable suggests they will at least make it tough for Atlanta.

Green Bay travelling to Jerryworld would be a suitable NFC Championship game with Rodgers’ playing at an all-time level and looming as a serious roadblock for the 13-3 Cowboys team that would definitely have preferred a meeting with New York, despite the fact that the Giants swept their division rivals in the regular season.

Kansas City hosting a white-hot Pittsburgh looms to be an intriguing matchup as Le’Veon Bell looks to follow up his impressive playoff debut, this time against a fiercer defensive unit in front of an opposing and raucous crowd at Arrowhead Stadium.

So three of the best possible match-ups fill this weekend, a good way to move on from the previous weekend of one-sided romps which included an overmatched Connor Cook, Matt Moore recovering from a concussion in the space of a few minutes and Odell Beckham putting a hole in a Lambeau Field locker room wall, his lone highlight after a poor game.

The one tiny issue with the second round of the playoffs is the obvious fact that there are four games this weekend. The fourth game of course features the Houston Texans, a team which to their credit did what they had to do and eliminated the Raiders behind a solid defensive showing and surprisingly competent quarterback play from Brock Osweiler.

Despite this, the Texans are really the only team that doesn’t belong in the final eight. They lucked out against the Raiders, with Derek Carr on the sidelines, watching on TV on the other side of the US. So well done for getting this far, but realistically they would have been the easy beats for whoever was lucky enough to host them and who gets that privilege on Sunday? Why who else but the New England Patriots.

It’s amazing how the universe decides each year, how can we make it even easier for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady? They already have an uncompetitive division in which they’ve ruled for almost the entire 21st century, they already have the smartest coach in the league who despite being superior already, makes it his mission each and every week to embarrass the slew of mediocre coaches in the league. And they already have one of the best quarterbacks of all time, who has the means to access the best care and recovery methods to ensure he can play at a top level until he’s 65.

No, it’s not enough letting them sleepwalk through the regular season into a division title and usually a bye week, let’s make their playoff path as simple as possible. The Patriots go into Sunday’s game as almost unbackable favourites, it’s a mere certainly that they won’t only win, they’ll destroy Houston for another divisional round blowout.

Just look at the recent history of who New England has faced for a trip to the AFC Championship game. Last year they met a Chiefs team which was overmatched offensively to keep up with Patriots and even threw in some insane Andy Reid clock management, winning by a touchdown in game which was never that close. In the 2013 season, they waxed Indianapolis 43-22 after the Colts had come off a shootout with the Chiefs. In 2012 they faced their first meeting with Houston and won by 13, and in 2011 they were able to enjoy a match-up with Denver, led by Tim Tebow, right after the magic had disappeared, crushing the Broncos 45-10.

It makes sense though that in 2016 the Pats would get an “Advance straight to go” into the Championship game. After surviving the horrors of “Deflategate” in the opening month of the season, New England have had a ridiculously easy schedule for a Super Bowl contender and the added benefit of key injuries in the AFC making it even more of a cakewalk.

The Pats faced only four-playoff teams in the regular season for a total of five games and even that doesn’t tell the true story. Two of those games were divisional games against the Miami, the second of which coming against Matt Moore. They faced Houston, who as stated above, shouldn’t be in the playoffs at this point and even faced the Steelers with back-up Landry Jones as quarterback.

Their playoff path was made much easier once Carr went down, meaning they would avoid having to face both Kansas City and Pittsburgh in the playoffs and heck, even with Ryan Tannehill going down it meant their final game against the Dolphins, which netted them the top seed, became a non-event.

So hopefully we can move on past Deflategate when the Pats lead 35-7 in the third quarter and Osweiler is being roasted on Twitter and recognise how easy the Pats have it every year.

Here are the four games, while I’ll go and be sick.

Seattle @ Atlanta (-5)

The 2012 divisional round epic played out between the Falcons and the Seahawks has quietly been forgotten as truly memorable playoff classic. Russell Wilson sat on the verge of being a playoff hero in his rookie year, leading the visitors in a two-minute drill, with Marshawn Lynch scoring a touchdown with just 25 seconds to go. Matt Ryan quickly answered and moved the home team into field goal range in 17 seconds, where Matt Bryant did the rest, claiming victory for Atlanta. The teams don’t seem as evenly matched this time around with the Falcons having a superior offence to last time and Seattle a defence closer to average.

The Falcons are going to put up at least 30-points, they have done that in almost every game this season, so can the Seahawks match that? Their hope comes at the line of scrimmage, where in Week 6, Seattle overpowered the Falcons offensive line and put consistent pressure on Ryan. They also limited Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman to 50-rushing yards on 17 carries. However, Ryan still threw for 335-yards and three touchdowns and that was in Seattle’s building.

Apart from Vic Beasley, the Seahawks won’t face a ferocious pass rush, so they will be able to keep Wilson upright, however they simply don’t have the weapons and are not playing well enough to top Atlanta.

Houston @ New England (-15)

See above, this will be a whitewash. A fun game to play while watching the Texans get blown out will be to count the number of JJ Watt sideline shots. The reported number last Sunday was 16, he’ll try to top that this week.

Green Bay (+4.5) @ Dallas

For the second playoff weekend, the Packers look set to be in the juiciest match-up of the four-game slate. If it lives up to expectation, their meeting with the Cowboys will be a good one. Rodgers and the Green Bay offence overcame a slow start at Lambeau and turned on the jets in a second half demolition of the Giants.

The star QB has returned to peak performance about a year-and-a-half of more mediocre form. A quick sidenote on that, there’s a lot of revisionist history going on regarding Rodgers and his struggles in the first half of the season, it’s almost as if it never happened because he’s playing so well now. There’s nothing wrong with criticising a player and an offence when they’re not performing, even if it is Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers.

For Dallas, they watched the Packers obliterate a Giants defence which is far superior to their own. The positive is their offence can work to control the clock and limit Green Bay possessions and Rodgers’ time on the field. The wildcard is Dak Prescott’s first playoff game, will he be nervous? Will he miss some throws early? And will he turn the ball over?

This is going to be tight and for all of Green Bay’s good work on this winning run, the Cowboys regular season dominance can’t be discounted or forgotten. Jerry Jones will be looking extra smug in his luxury box at the end of this one. #Dezcaughtit

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City (-1.5)

The closest match-up and the toughest game to call sets up an epic in Kansas City. Pittsburgh didn’t do their chances any harm in Miami seeing as that game was over midway through the first quarter. The Dolphins may have made it interesting on the scoreboard, but the Steelers were always a couple of gears above their opponents.

The unveiling of Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger as a trio on offence did not fail to disappoint. Bell smoked Miami for two touchdowns, Brown did the same and Roethlisberger completed his first 12 passes. The only lowlight was an injury to Big Ben which left him in a moonboot, however knowing his history; the moonboot was probably more for affect than anything.

Kansas City are at a level above Miami and it’s hard to see a scenario of the Chiefs getting blown away early. This is a big game for the Chiefs, it’s time they capitalised on two-seasons of regular season consistency and went deep into the playoffs. Their defence is comparable to last season where they fell at this hurdle; however the addition of Tyreek Hill on offence is the real wildcard. They’ve lacked a spark on offence in past seasons; however the rookie sensation can open up the field for Alex Smith, who has a patchy playoff record (2-3). Get it done Kansas City.

Without Luck, what else does Indy have?

Ryan Grigson has felt the heat after back-to-back 8-8 seasons.

Black Monday passed with little fanfare in the NFL, most of the bloodletting having taken place the night before as Mike McCoy, Chip Kelly and Rex Ryan were all given their marching orders, while reigning Super Bowl winning head coach Gary Kubiak stepped down due to health concerns.

Alongside these departing head coaches, 49ers’ GM Trent Baalke was fired from Levi’s Stadium and it became publicly apparent that Doug Whaley has almost no power as GM in Buffalo.

Two names absent from these lists after another mediocre season in Indianapolis were Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson. The thought of change in Indy following their 8-8 finish came and went with barely a whimper, save a quote from Jim Irsay stating that he was “very unhappy” with his team’s performance during an interview in which he flagged possible organisational changes.

Irsay has every right to be unhappy, not just with this season, but the past two seasons of Pagano and Grigson’s tenure which has spluttered after bright beginnings in 2012 which produced three playoff appearances and a trip to the AFC Championship Game in 2014.

The AFC South has been jampacked with intriguing storylines this season, from Blake Bortles’ severe regression, the Tennessee revival behind Marcus Mariota and of course the complete flameout of Brock Osweiler in Houston. All of these stories wrapped into another bizarre battle for the division which ultimately fell the Texans’ way despite abysmal quarterback play.

The Colts fell completely under the radar and their .500 finish has been lost in the wash as pundits discuss how Houston are hosting a playoff game, decrying the fact that we have been robbed the chance of seeing Mariota lead their “exotic smashmouth” offence in January after a broken leg derailed the Titans season, sinking any playoff hopes in Week 16.

True is it a shame that Tennessee couldn’t usurp Houston for that 4th seed in the AFC, it’s also a shame that a team led by Andrew Luck throwing for 4,240 yards, 31 touchdowns and a passer rating of 96.4 was beaten twice and finished a game behind a Houston team led by Brock Osweiler who couldn’t top 3,000 passing yards, threw half the number of touchdowns and who finished with a passer rating more than 20-points below Luck’s.

Luck played at a Pro Bowl level and should probably have replaced Ben Roethlisberger as the third AFC quarterback. When an organisation fails to win a mediocre division with QB play like that, it’s a serious indictment on the rest of the team and that’s where Grigson can be blamed.

Outside of QB, the Colts came into the season with a suspect offensive line, a lead back who had turned 33 with severe tread on the tyres, holes all over the front seven and a secondary which had turned into a mess through injury and an overall lack of quality.

The Colts paid for this lack of talent on defence, particularly early where they conceded 25-points or more in seven of their nine games before the bye and suffered close losses against Detroit, Jacksonville and inexplicable collapse against the Texans on Sunday night.

The Colts aren’t close to a Super Bowl contender and really didn’t deserve to make the playoffs in any normal division. However they’re in the AFC South and their situation is inexcusable with a gifted passer like Luck at quarterback.

Both Pagano and Grigson came under fire after the 2015 season, where they also finished 8-8. They had a fair excuse with the absence of Luck for long stretches of the season through injury and were both awarded contract extensions.

This year though, their offence was mainly healthy all season, only Dante Moncrief missed meaningful time. Luck missed just the one game against Pittsburgh, a game in which they were non-competitive.

Pagano has mainly escaped criticism for the past two seasons, with most of the blame being directed at Grigson. After initial success in 2012 via offensive weapons in the draft, the GM’s drafting has been patchy as he’s favoured skill position players, ignoring areas of need. Using another first round pick on a wide receiver in 2015 was the real headscratcher and Phillip Dorsett’s 2016 numbers of 33-catches for 528-yards and a miserly two-touchdowns certainly hasn’t vindicated the pick.

Outside of the quarterback position and the main group of receivers, the current Colts roster is comparable to when Pagano and Grigson took over, following a 2-14 season which anchored Indy as the worst team in the league.

The pair have been given considerable time to overhaul the team and yet still oversee a defence with massive holes and an offensive line which is improving, yet still struggles to protect their franchise QB.

Certainly, three straight playoff appearances rightfully brought them some time, however if you can’t build and coach a team capable of winning the current AFC South, how much leeway do you deserve?

Irsay has traditionally been patient with both head coaches and general managers. Pagano is the team’s third head coach since 2001 and the hiring of Grigson ended a 15-year association with a Polian as GM.

Now though, Irsay’s patience must be waning and change may be needed to revitalise a team which has been stuck in the middle of the league, outside of the playoffs.

Black Monday bypassed the Colts for another season, however change may be on the horizon as Indy needs to start capitalising on having a top-five quarterback in the prime of his career.