If there was one upside from a fairly mediocre wildcard weekend, aside from Aaron Rodgers’ domination and a second week of “Boatgate”, it was that only eight of the best teams remain, setting up a mouth-watering (or as Ray Lewis likes to say, “mouth got water”) divisional round featuring three dream match-ups.
On the NFC side of the playoff bracket, you could mix up the four remaining combatants in any combination and only get great games. Seattle didn’t really exceed expectations in their 26-6 win over Detroit, however at least they are peaking and the hint of a dangerous running game led by Thomas Rawls and a defence which is still formidable suggests they will at least make it tough for Atlanta.
Green Bay travelling to Jerryworld would be a suitable NFC Championship game with Rodgers’ playing at an all-time level and looming as a serious roadblock for the 13-3 Cowboys team that would definitely have preferred a meeting with New York, despite the fact that the Giants swept their division rivals in the regular season.
Kansas City hosting a white-hot Pittsburgh looms to be an intriguing matchup as Le’Veon Bell looks to follow up his impressive playoff debut, this time against a fiercer defensive unit in front of an opposing and raucous crowd at Arrowhead Stadium.
So three of the best possible match-ups fill this weekend, a good way to move on from the previous weekend of one-sided romps which included an overmatched Connor Cook, Matt Moore recovering from a concussion in the space of a few minutes and Odell Beckham putting a hole in a Lambeau Field locker room wall, his lone highlight after a poor game.
The one tiny issue with the second round of the playoffs is the obvious fact that there are four games this weekend. The fourth game of course features the Houston Texans, a team which to their credit did what they had to do and eliminated the Raiders behind a solid defensive showing and surprisingly competent quarterback play from Brock Osweiler.
Despite this, the Texans are really the only team that doesn’t belong in the final eight. They lucked out against the Raiders, with Derek Carr on the sidelines, watching on TV on the other side of the US. So well done for getting this far, but realistically they would have been the easy beats for whoever was lucky enough to host them and who gets that privilege on Sunday? Why who else but the New England Patriots.
It’s amazing how the universe decides each year, how can we make it even easier for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady? They already have an uncompetitive division in which they’ve ruled for almost the entire 21st century, they already have the smartest coach in the league who despite being superior already, makes it his mission each and every week to embarrass the slew of mediocre coaches in the league. And they already have one of the best quarterbacks of all time, who has the means to access the best care and recovery methods to ensure he can play at a top level until he’s 65.
No, it’s not enough letting them sleepwalk through the regular season into a division title and usually a bye week, let’s make their playoff path as simple as possible. The Patriots go into Sunday’s game as almost unbackable favourites, it’s a mere certainly that they won’t only win, they’ll destroy Houston for another divisional round blowout.
Just look at the recent history of who New England has faced for a trip to the AFC Championship game. Last year they met a Chiefs team which was overmatched offensively to keep up with Patriots and even threw in some insane Andy Reid clock management, winning by a touchdown in game which was never that close. In the 2013 season, they waxed Indianapolis 43-22 after the Colts had come off a shootout with the Chiefs. In 2012 they faced their first meeting with Houston and won by 13, and in 2011 they were able to enjoy a match-up with Denver, led by Tim Tebow, right after the magic had disappeared, crushing the Broncos 45-10.
It makes sense though that in 2016 the Pats would get an “Advance straight to go” into the Championship game. After surviving the horrors of “Deflategate” in the opening month of the season, New England have had a ridiculously easy schedule for a Super Bowl contender and the added benefit of key injuries in the AFC making it even more of a cakewalk.
The Pats faced only four-playoff teams in the regular season for a total of five games and even that doesn’t tell the true story. Two of those games were divisional games against the Miami, the second of which coming against Matt Moore. They faced Houston, who as stated above, shouldn’t be in the playoffs at this point and even faced the Steelers with back-up Landry Jones as quarterback.
Their playoff path was made much easier once Carr went down, meaning they would avoid having to face both Kansas City and Pittsburgh in the playoffs and heck, even with Ryan Tannehill going down it meant their final game against the Dolphins, which netted them the top seed, became a non-event.
So hopefully we can move on past Deflategate when the Pats lead 35-7 in the third quarter and Osweiler is being roasted on Twitter and recognise how easy the Pats have it every year.
Here are the four games, while I’ll go and be sick.
Seattle @ Atlanta (-5)
The 2012 divisional round epic played out between the Falcons and the Seahawks has quietly been forgotten as truly memorable playoff classic. Russell Wilson sat on the verge of being a playoff hero in his rookie year, leading the visitors in a two-minute drill, with Marshawn Lynch scoring a touchdown with just 25 seconds to go. Matt Ryan quickly answered and moved the home team into field goal range in 17 seconds, where Matt Bryant did the rest, claiming victory for Atlanta. The teams don’t seem as evenly matched this time around with the Falcons having a superior offence to last time and Seattle a defence closer to average.
The Falcons are going to put up at least 30-points, they have done that in almost every game this season, so can the Seahawks match that? Their hope comes at the line of scrimmage, where in Week 6, Seattle overpowered the Falcons offensive line and put consistent pressure on Ryan. They also limited Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman to 50-rushing yards on 17 carries. However, Ryan still threw for 335-yards and three touchdowns and that was in Seattle’s building.
Apart from Vic Beasley, the Seahawks won’t face a ferocious pass rush, so they will be able to keep Wilson upright, however they simply don’t have the weapons and are not playing well enough to top Atlanta.
Houston @ New England (-15)
See above, this will be a whitewash. A fun game to play while watching the Texans get blown out will be to count the number of JJ Watt sideline shots. The reported number last Sunday was 16, he’ll try to top that this week.
Green Bay (+4.5) @ Dallas
For the second playoff weekend, the Packers look set to be in the juiciest match-up of the four-game slate. If it lives up to expectation, their meeting with the Cowboys will be a good one. Rodgers and the Green Bay offence overcame a slow start at Lambeau and turned on the jets in a second half demolition of the Giants.
The star QB has returned to peak performance about a year-and-a-half of more mediocre form. A quick sidenote on that, there’s a lot of revisionist history going on regarding Rodgers and his struggles in the first half of the season, it’s almost as if it never happened because he’s playing so well now. There’s nothing wrong with criticising a player and an offence when they’re not performing, even if it is Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers.
For Dallas, they watched the Packers obliterate a Giants defence which is far superior to their own. The positive is their offence can work to control the clock and limit Green Bay possessions and Rodgers’ time on the field. The wildcard is Dak Prescott’s first playoff game, will he be nervous? Will he miss some throws early? And will he turn the ball over?
This is going to be tight and for all of Green Bay’s good work on this winning run, the Cowboys regular season dominance can’t be discounted or forgotten. Jerry Jones will be looking extra smug in his luxury box at the end of this one. #Dezcaughtit
Pittsburgh @ Kansas City (-1.5)
The closest match-up and the toughest game to call sets up an epic in Kansas City. Pittsburgh didn’t do their chances any harm in Miami seeing as that game was over midway through the first quarter. The Dolphins may have made it interesting on the scoreboard, but the Steelers were always a couple of gears above their opponents.
The unveiling of Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger as a trio on offence did not fail to disappoint. Bell smoked Miami for two touchdowns, Brown did the same and Roethlisberger completed his first 12 passes. The only lowlight was an injury to Big Ben which left him in a moonboot, however knowing his history; the moonboot was probably more for affect than anything.
Kansas City are at a level above Miami and it’s hard to see a scenario of the Chiefs getting blown away early. This is a big game for the Chiefs, it’s time they capitalised on two-seasons of regular season consistency and went deep into the playoffs. Their defence is comparable to last season where they fell at this hurdle; however the addition of Tyreek Hill on offence is the real wildcard. They’ve lacked a spark on offence in past seasons; however the rookie sensation can open up the field for Alex Smith, who has a patchy playoff record (2-3). Get it done Kansas City.