That hasn’t quite happened, in fact not only did few fresh contenders emerge down the stretch, but Super Bowl calibre teams have become weaker, with injuries ravaging most of the AFC. It’s created a situation where the six playoff teams in the conference provide us with a quarterback list of Tom Brady, Alex Smith & Ben Roethlisberger (tick) and Connor Cook, Brock Osweiler and Matt More (cross).
From this motley crew of quarterbacks, it’s created two things, 1. A clear path for the Patriots to waltz into another Super Bowl and 2. A fairly lacklustre wildcard weekend slate.
It seems fitting that in this season so many teams would get knocked with major injuries or have lost all form by the time we entered the playoffs.
Houston have no business being division champions or playing in the postseason, Oakland’s hope died with Derek Carr’s broken leg, Detroit’s incredible run of early season luck appears to be over and Moore has replaced the injured Ryan Tannehill, weakening an already pedestrian offence. Throw in a Seattle team which hasn’t produced the form required to contend and it’s a mix of also-rans filling up half of the playoff spots.
There is some good news, Green Bay has backed up Aaron Rodgers’ proclamation from late November that they would run the table and are on a six-game winning streak. Atlanta’s offence is fully fit and absolutely firing, Kansas City look stronger than last year and New England & Dallas have emerged as legitimate number one seeds in any season, not just the weakened 2016 campaign.
The Houston, Oakland barnstormer to open the postseason looms as a non-event as we look forward to a far from memorable quarterback battle between a first-time starter and guy who was benched as recently as Week 15, after floundering as the Texans’ starting QB. Still, it’s not like this game will come without precedence and will even follow a recent tradition of stinkers on wildcard weekend. Here’s a short list of similarly lampooned games, like Cook vs Osweiler.
2015 season – Kansas City 30-0 Houston Texans
As bad as Osweiler has been this year, he has a very low bar to reach if he wants to top Houston’s previous playoff disaster. Who could forget the way the Texans were embarrassed in their own buildinf as the Chiefs broke a 23-year playoff win drought. Knile Davis kicked off the beatdown with a return touchdown on the opening kickoff and Brian Hoyer was sent running for the border after throwing four-interceptions.
2014 season – Arizona 16-27 Carolina
If Connor Cook debuting in a playoff game is a shock, then so was the Cardinals’ third string quarterback Ryan Lindley starting in Carolina two years ago. The career back up struggled throwing for just 82-yards and committing two turnovers as Arizona produced an historically bad offensive performance, picking up just eight first downs and gaining 78-net yards on offensive, a playoff record in futility. This all coming against a Carolina team which had finished 7-8-1, surging to win the putrid NFC South.
2012 season – Cincinnati 13-19 Houston
After so many one-and-done playoffs losses for the Bengals, it’s a little hard to remember Andy Dalton’s second attempt at ending Cincy’s playoff drought. Houston were the beneficiaries of a struggling Dalton who threw for just 127-yards, completing less than 50% of his passes.
2011 season – Cincinnati 10-21 Houston
Dalton’s first playoff effort was just as tough as he threw three interceptions and saw his team run over in Houston. The highlight of the game was JJ Watt’s 29-yard pick six and the rough outing was a taste of things to come for the Bengals in the playoffs.
So, as you ponder not waking up on Sunday morning for the AFC playoff clash, remember you’ve seen this all before. And now that we’re here, let’s preview the four games.
Oakland @ Houston (-3.5)
If someone had told you three weeks ago that the Raiders and Texans would meet in the wildcard round and the starting quarterbacks would be Cook and Osweiler, what would be more surprising? The fact that Oakland had lost their MVP calibre quarterback and had replaced him with a debutant, or that Osweiler would somehow start another game for the Texans? It’s a tough call, but certainly once Tom Savage took over for the AFC South champs to rescue victory from the jaws of defeat against Jacksonville, it would have been safe to assume Osweiler was done, at least for this season.
With the $72 million QB back in command of the offence, he actually walks into a decent situation as the Houston playoff narrative has been turned on its head. As the playoffs approached and the Texans loomed as a possible AFC South division champion, contenders for the fifth seed would have been licking their lips at the possibility of a very winnable playoff game. Now it’s the Texans who must sense a massive opportunity.
The Raiders look like a broken team which has succumbed to the fact that without Carr at quarterback, they simply cannot contend in the AFC. Cook faces a baptism of fire against a Texans defence which is strong all around and even better at home. After all that has happened, Osweiler may lead Houston to a playoff victory, good work NFL.
Detroit @ Seattle (-8)
At some point the Lions were going to have to pay for their incredible run of good karma and the final three-weeks of the regular season suggest their 9-4 wasn’t a true indication of the quality of this team. Their offence was stifled against the Giants, they were outmatched by a Dallas offence and simply couldn’t keep up with Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers at the top of his game.
The bright spot for Detroit is their wildcard opponents seem at least one level beneath those three NFC playoff teams and despite winning another NFC West crown, look to be a shadow of their former selves and just don’t seem to pose a threat in the NFC title race. Even with the return of Michael Bennett, the loss of Earl Thomas has been massive and while it’s clearly hurt them in the regular season already, they will truly feel the absence of Marshawn Lynch in January as their running game crawls behind a poor offensive line.
Even with their weaknesses, Seattle look to have the firepower to at least last one more week. Detroit’s own lack of a running game will mean Matt Stafford will need to be on fire and with a suspect middle finger still plaguing the QB, the Clink can celebrate another playoff win.
Miami @ Pittsburgh (-10.5)
Pre season expectations of a dominant Steelers offence haven’t been met by Mike Tomlin’s team and they’ve instead been plagued by inconsistency. Aside from their absolute stinkbomb against Philadelphia, the Steelers’ Week 6 thrashing at the hands of Miami was one of their worst performances of the season. Although unlike the wildcard game this was a road game, the Dolphins ran all over the Steelers D, with Jay Ajayi celebrating his breakout game with 204-rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Pittsburgh also battled away with an injured Roethlisberger who missed a series in the second quarter with a leg injury which came on an interception, completely swinging momentum. A hobbled Big Ben hurting their offence, it was the dominance Miami had over the Steelers’ D which was the biggest surprise.
However, it does look like you can’t take too much from that game. For the first time in a while, Pittsburgh’s offence is fully loaded in January and with Miami battling defensive injuries, particularly in the secondary, this looms as a blowout if Pittsburgh can click. Ajayi will be the key for Miami, they’ll need to lean on his rushing and control possession to stand any chance as they too head into their first postseason since 2008 with a backup quarterback.
New York Giants (+5) @ Green Bay
If there is one game to look forward to on wildcard weekend, it’s this one. A genuine battle between a high-flying offence and dominant defence looms at a frozen Lambeau Field. A fun subplot running through the season has been the thought of the Trilogy taking place in the Super Bowl as the Giants and Patriots both surged into the postseason. A fun omen would be if New York could repeat a feat they achieved in both Super Bowl years by beating the Packers in Green Bay.
Thankfully for Green Bay, Rodgers has returned to not being human and put on a masterclass in Detroit to steal the NFC North title and propel the Packers into another playoff run. Jordy Nelson is a top-five wide receiver again and Davante Adams has made a quantum leap. Their defence is still suspect, however outside of Odell Beckham, the Giants offence has been awful with Eli Manning being the main culprit.
Despite all that, the Giants defence is legit, their off-season overhaul has exceeded expectations and they have the ability on all three lines of defence to match Rodgers and company. It’s going to be Part III and Eli is coming for the Evil Empire once again.