Black Monday passed with little fanfare in the NFL, most of the bloodletting having taken place the night before as Mike McCoy, Chip Kelly and Rex Ryan were all given their marching orders, while reigning Super Bowl winning head coach Gary Kubiak stepped down due to health concerns.
Alongside these departing head coaches, 49ers’ GM Trent Baalke was fired from Levi’s Stadium and it became publicly apparent that Doug Whaley has almost no power as GM in Buffalo.
Two names absent from these lists after another mediocre season in Indianapolis were Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson. The thought of change in Indy following their 8-8 finish came and went with barely a whimper, save a quote from Jim Irsay stating that he was “very unhappy” with his team’s performance during an interview in which he flagged possible organisational changes.
Irsay has every right to be unhappy, not just with this season, but the past two seasons of Pagano and Grigson’s tenure which has spluttered after bright beginnings in 2012 which produced three playoff appearances and a trip to the AFC Championship Game in 2014.
The AFC South has been jampacked with intriguing storylines this season, from Blake Bortles’ severe regression, the Tennessee revival behind Marcus Mariota and of course the complete flameout of Brock Osweiler in Houston. All of these stories wrapped into another bizarre battle for the division which ultimately fell the Texans’ way despite abysmal quarterback play.
The Colts fell completely under the radar and their .500 finish has been lost in the wash as pundits discuss how Houston are hosting a playoff game, decrying the fact that we have been robbed the chance of seeing Mariota lead their “exotic smashmouth” offence in January after a broken leg derailed the Titans season, sinking any playoff hopes in Week 16.
True is it a shame that Tennessee couldn’t usurp Houston for that 4th seed in the AFC, it’s also a shame that a team led by Andrew Luck throwing for 4,240 yards, 31 touchdowns and a passer rating of 96.4 was beaten twice and finished a game behind a Houston team led by Brock Osweiler who couldn’t top 3,000 passing yards, threw half the number of touchdowns and who finished with a passer rating more than 20-points below Luck’s.
Luck played at a Pro Bowl level and should probably have replaced Ben Roethlisberger as the third AFC quarterback. When an organisation fails to win a mediocre division with QB play like that, it’s a serious indictment on the rest of the team and that’s where Grigson can be blamed.
Outside of QB, the Colts came into the season with a suspect offensive line, a lead back who had turned 33 with severe tread on the tyres, holes all over the front seven and a secondary which had turned into a mess through injury and an overall lack of quality.
The Colts paid for this lack of talent on defence, particularly early where they conceded 25-points or more in seven of their nine games before the bye and suffered close losses against Detroit, Jacksonville and inexplicable collapse against the Texans on Sunday night.
The Colts aren’t close to a Super Bowl contender and really didn’t deserve to make the playoffs in any normal division. However they’re in the AFC South and their situation is inexcusable with a gifted passer like Luck at quarterback.
Both Pagano and Grigson came under fire after the 2015 season, where they also finished 8-8. They had a fair excuse with the absence of Luck for long stretches of the season through injury and were both awarded contract extensions.
This year though, their offence was mainly healthy all season, only Dante Moncrief missed meaningful time. Luck missed just the one game against Pittsburgh, a game in which they were non-competitive.
Pagano has mainly escaped criticism for the past two seasons, with most of the blame being directed at Grigson. After initial success in 2012 via offensive weapons in the draft, the GM’s drafting has been patchy as he’s favoured skill position players, ignoring areas of need. Using another first round pick on a wide receiver in 2015 was the real headscratcher and Phillip Dorsett’s 2016 numbers of 33-catches for 528-yards and a miserly two-touchdowns certainly hasn’t vindicated the pick.
Outside of the quarterback position and the main group of receivers, the current Colts roster is comparable to when Pagano and Grigson took over, following a 2-14 season which anchored Indy as the worst team in the league.
The pair have been given considerable time to overhaul the team and yet still oversee a defence with massive holes and an offensive line which is improving, yet still struggles to protect their franchise QB.
Certainly, three straight playoff appearances rightfully brought them some time, however if you can’t build and coach a team capable of winning the current AFC South, how much leeway do you deserve?
Irsay has traditionally been patient with both head coaches and general managers. Pagano is the team’s third head coach since 2001 and the hiring of Grigson ended a 15-year association with a Polian as GM.
Now though, Irsay’s patience must be waning and change may be needed to revitalise a team which has been stuck in the middle of the league, outside of the playoffs.
Black Monday bypassed the Colts for another season, however change may be on the horizon as Indy needs to start capitalising on having a top-five quarterback in the prime of his career.